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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.897 · slack_pm:msg:09313

Page text: p.897 · original PDF

Date
2021-05-29 18:32 (hour precision)
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker
Andrew Rambaut

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Morning - I agree about the letter. It won't have impact like this. Did you see the structure I suggested: https://andersenlab.slack.com/archives/C022R1 PFL2K/p1622293697 139200 ?

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  1. 2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes open
    And virus X could not really any closer to SARS-CoV-2 than that on an RdRp tree....
  2. 2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes open
    The letter is FAR too complex. The false equivalence angle does not work at all for me.
  3. 2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes open
    This needs to completely rewritten IMO
  4. 2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes open
    = replied - it's NOT from Shi. Damn! He got sent the RdRp and did it himself. Bum. Of some historical interest jough. The excitement did not last long....
  5. 2021-05-29 18:32 Andrew Rambaut
    Morning - I agree about the letter. It won't have impact like this. Did you see the structure I suggested: https://andersenlab.slack.com/archives/C022R1 PFL2K/p1622293697 139200 ?
  6. 2021-05-29 18:32 Andrew Rambaut open
    SLACK_001112 1. Substantial evidence base that zoonosis is the source of this - this should be the bulk of the paper. 2. Capture-escape is basically a very specific and low probability route for zoonosis to have occurred. The only way the posterior probability of this goes from close to zero to something reasonable is by the addition of evidence. Ifevidence emerges that SARS-CoV-2 was in the lab in November then the posterior probability of lab-escape goes to1, at the moment it is near 0.3. Thus capture-escape is unsubstantiated conjecture about a conspiracy to cover up the evidence (access to labdocumentation will thus say nothing either way).4. If capture-escape happened then further natural zoonosis is still a more likely source in future (although thatemerges from 2 so perhaps is not worth saying).5. It is seriously distracting from understanding and ameliorating our risk of future pandemics and re-emergence ofthis virus.
  7. 2021-05-29 18:32 Andrew Rambaut open
    We should ignore manipulation altogether and let Bloom and co have to come back and say "ah but ... what if ..."
  8. 2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes open
    I agree. Do you want to start on this? If not, I can try tomorrow. All the different forms of lab escape should go in the second paragraph
  9. 2021-05-29 18:32 Andrew Rambaut open
    I won't be able to do anything today until everyone has gone to bed. I have to get off my laptop and interact with family. Plus it is the first warm sunny day since last September I think (don't say anything @Kristian Andersen).

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