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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.897 · slack_pm:msg:09310

Page text: p.897 · original PDF

Date
2021-05-29 18:32 (hour precision)
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Edward C. Holmes

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

The letter is FAR too complex. The false equivalence angle does not work at all for me.

In context

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  1. 2021-05-29 18:32 Kristian G. Andersen open
    I gotta say though - had I sequenced that RdRp and blasted that fragment, I would have lost my shit. Immediately.
  2. 2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes open
    Right. You wouldn't be putting in a paper to Nature for all the fucking world to see.
  3. 2021-05-29 18:32 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Nope. And I remember you and I discussing that back then.
  4. 2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes open
    And virus X could not really any closer to SARS-CoV-2 than that on an RdRp tree....
  5. 2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes
    The letter is FAR too complex. The false equivalence angle does not work at all for me.
  6. 2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes open
    This needs to completely rewritten IMO
  7. 2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes open
    = replied - it's NOT from Shi. Damn! He got sent the RdRp and did it himself. Bum. Of some historical interest jough. The excitement did not last long....
  8. 2021-05-29 18:32 Andrew Rambaut open
    Morning - I agree about the letter. It won't have impact like this. Did you see the structure I suggested: https://andersenlab.slack.com/archives/C022R1 PFL2K/p1622293697 139200 ?
  9. 2021-05-29 18:32 Andrew Rambaut open
    SLACK_001112 1. Substantial evidence base that zoonosis is the source of this - this should be the bulk of the paper. 2. Capture-escape is basically a very specific and low probability route for zoonosis to have occurred. The only way the posterior probability of this goes from close to zero to something reasonable is by the addition of evidence. Ifevidence emerges that SARS-CoV-2 was in the lab in November then the posterior probability of lab-escape goes to1, at the moment it is near 0.3. Thus capture-escape is unsubstantiated conjecture about a conspiracy to cover up the evidence (access to labdocumentation will thus say nothing either way).4. If capture-escape happened then further natural zoonosis is still a more likely source in future (although thatemerges from 2 so perhaps is not worth saying).5. It is seriously distracting from understanding and ameliorating our risk of future pandemics and re-emergence ofthis virus.

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