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Slack / Private Message Drop, pp.897-898 · slack_pm:msg:09314

Date: 2021-05-29 18:32 (hour precision)
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut
Topics: Lab-leak / accidental release hypothesis Natural origin / zoonotic spillover

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SLACK_001112 1. Substantial evidence base that zoonosis is the source of this - this should be the bulk of the paper. 2. Capture-escape is basically a very specific and low probability route for zoonosis to have occurred. The only way the posterior probability of this goes from close to zero to something reasonable is by the addition of evidence. Ifevidence emerges that SARS-CoV-2 was in the lab in November then the posterior probability of lab-escape goes to1, at the moment it is near 0.3. Thus capture-escape is unsubstantiated conjecture about a conspiracy to cover up the evidence (access to labdocumentation will thus say nothing either way).4. If capture-escape happened then further natural zoonosis is still a more likely source in future (although thatemerges from 2 so perhaps is not worth saying).5. It is seriously distracting from understanding and ameliorating our risk of future pandemics and re-emergence ofthis virus.

In context

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2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes open

The letter is FAR too complex. The false equivalence angle does not work at all for me.
2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes open

This needs to completely rewritten IMO
2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes open

= replied - it's NOT from Shi. Damn! He got sent the RdRp and did it himself. Bum. Of some historical interest jough. The excitement did not last long....
2021-05-29 18:32 Andrew Rambaut open

Morning - I agree about the letter. It won't have impact like this. Did you see the structure I suggested: https://andersenlab.slack.com/archives/C022R1 PFL2K/p1622293697 139200 ?
2021-05-29 18:32 Andrew Rambaut

SLACK_001112 1. Substantial evidence base that zoonosis is the source of this - this should be the bulk of the paper. 2. Capture-escape is basically a very specific and low probability route for zoonosis to have occurred. The only way the posterior probability of this goes from close to zero to something reasonable is by the addition of evidence. Ifevidence emerges that SARS-CoV-2 was in the lab in November then the posterior probability of lab-escape goes to1, at the moment it is near 0.3. Thus capture-escape is unsubstantiated conjecture about a conspiracy to cover up the evidence (access to labdocumentation will thus say nothing either way).4. If capture-escape happened then further natural zoonosis is still a more likely source in future (although thatemerges from 2 so perhaps is not worth saying).5. It is seriously distracting from understanding and ameliorating our risk of future pandemics and re-emergence ofthis virus.
2021-05-29 18:32 Andrew Rambaut open

We should ignore manipulation altogether and let Bloom and co have to come back and say "ah but ... what if ..."
2021-05-29 18:32 Edward C. Holmes open

I agree. Do you want to start on this? If not, I can try tomorrow. All the different forms of lab escape should go in the second paragraph
2021-05-29 18:32 Andrew Rambaut open

I won't be able to do anything today until everyone has gone to bed. I have to get off my laptop and interact with family. Plus it is the first warm sunny day since last September I think (don't say anything @Kristian Andersen).
2021-05-29 18:32 Robert F. Garry open

https://twitter.com/gumby4christ/status/139848880807 7893640. I have my own wall of crazy now. Simplified: Alina Chan ->Jeremy Epstein. As noted in -channel you can also draw not so crazy lines from Epstein to Peter Theil(Yuri), Steve Bannon (Dr. Yan), David Asher/Pompeo and I'm sure the list goes on and on. Karma has a way ofbiting you in the ass. Accuse people of genocide you better make sure your own house is squeaky clean. Archivingsome of the tweets just for fun: [shared file(s): image.png, image.png]

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