Private channel session 1389
18 messages over 2h 43m, 2021-05-17 – 2021-05-17.
A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.
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Too soon to declare victory and yes a variety of other factors could be at play but the curve is coming down in theUS. Other "high-vax" counties it seems to be similar. Still less than half with even a partial vaccine course. You can add in the previously infected (symptomatic or not) plus some measure of protection from seasonal cov infections, but those are guesses. Questions - 1. safe to saw the decreases are vaccine related or not? 2. If so what thresholdlevel of immunization (based in Isreal, UK and UK) makes a dent in new cases? 3. What's the likelihood that variants and other factors make the downturn a temporary illusion if as seems likely vaccine coverge peters out and we hit maybe not too far north of 50%. [shared file(s): image.png]
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We have been in a pretty strong lockdown over the entire vaccination period so decline in cases probably not downto vaccine (much improved death rate of course). The question is what happens next?
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What happens next is indeed the big question - meanwhile, following the invasion of the nonAustralian marsupial this reptilian creature appeared on my dashboard during the drive in. [shared file(s): IMG_1712.JPG]
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.... the virus mutates, causing further waves. Unless we get many more people vaccinated and updates boosters.
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Agreed - I don't think the US is going to get to sufficient coverage to drive the virus to low-low-no. Most Republicans will not get the vax. No way that sufficient vaccination happens elsewhere it's needed in the world (eg. South America, Southern Africa) so always a source of new variants. Don't think SC2 is going to run out of mutational space anytime soon [we're just seeing the path of least resistance repeated seemingly a couple of times]. Best case scenario in the US is a slow burn with spikes. As Eddie implied HKU1 and OC43 are probably best look forward towhat SC2 has in store. OC43 for one has been exploring a lot of it's mutational space over decades.
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https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/663
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Yup, we'll see relief in the short term and vaccination can definitely be the end game - however, only if we think about this as being a global problem and not a national one.
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This is pretty key: https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1009509
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I also think we're seeing _some_ evidence for post vaccination infections in clusters - i.e., super spreading. Why? Because vaccine 'failures' may very likely not be down to the individual (didn't respond to the vaccine, insufficientimmunity, etc.), but rather down to epidemiology. As a vaccinated person, spend a lot of time with an unvaccinatedinfected person and you'll likely get COVID - the risk is obviously much less, but I'm not convinced our 95%effectiveness will hold up in a world of many unvaccinated people, variants, COVID still circulating, and, most importantly, social interactions back to near-normal. We'll see - Israel. (Although I don't know what the hell is up in the Seychelles - example of a lot of unvaccinatedpeople coming in, followed by high levels of social interactions, with a lot of post vaccination infections. But they're not using the best vaccines...)
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"vaccine 'failures' may very likely not be down to the individual" That's another good way of stating the dirty little secret of vaccination. It's not about the individual, but about the population.
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Agree, the whole thing about not using the best vaccines likely becomes key. The stabilized mRNA constructs good- most everything else less good for the "end game."
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To the virological post - is Bob's post online? A lot of people linked to that so while I agree Bill's post might have been a little too much, I think it's important Bob's post is online and available.
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I couldn't move Bill's reply on its own. I also just want to have a quick look over. I may just remove the replies, moveit back and then lock it.
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I'm fine either way - long game. That google doc of points and counterpoints is pretty awesome and needs to see the light of day.
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OK it is back up - but I have explained to Bill and suggested he goes for an eLetter
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Yeah, Google doc is coming together - A LOT of key points in there. Need to figure out how we structure this best -I'm thinking maybe we could get Stephen's help with that...
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Don McNeill https://donaldgmcneiljr1954.medium.com/how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-lab-leak-theory-f4f88446b04d O found this bit most interesting @Eddie Holmes "Of those swabs, about six percent were positive for the virus, according to Xinhua, China's state news agency. Most came from the western end, where the wildlife was sold. And most, Dr. Shi said, were from spots near or below floor level -- the handles of roll down steel shutters and the drains over the floor gutters.Finding virus in six percent of surface samples was more than might be expected even in a hospital during fluseason, Trevor Bedford, an evolutionary geneticist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle who does flu studies told me last year. And the most logical explanation for finding that much virus on the floor and in the drains, he speculated, was notcoughing humans. It was the blood of a butchered animal being sloshed around as the market was hosed out."
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It's not clear to me that DM really loves the Lab Leak theory...