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Slack / Private Message Drop, pp.823-824 [SLACK_001037] · slack_pm:msg:08588

Page text: p.823, p.824 · original PDF

Date
2021-05-17 07:24
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Kristian G. Andersen
Topics
VaccinesIntelligence community assessments

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

I also think we're seeing _some_ evidence for post vaccination infections in clusters - i.e., super spreading. Why? Because vaccine 'failures' may very likely not be down to the individual (didn't respond to the vaccine, insufficientimmunity, etc.), but rather down to epidemiology. As a vaccinated person, spend a lot of time with an unvaccinatedinfected person and you'll likely get COVID - the risk is obviously much less, but I'm not convinced our 95%effectiveness will hold up in a world of many unvaccinated people, variants, COVID still circulating, and, most importantly, social interactions back to near-normal. We'll see - Israel. (Although I don't know what the hell is up in the Seychelles - example of a lot of unvaccinatedpeople coming in, followed by high levels of social interactions, with a lot of post vaccination infections. But they're not using the best vaccines...)

Extracted statements

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StatementGradeAttributionStance
I also think we're seeing _some_ evidence for post vaccination infections in clusters - i.e., super spreading. own voice, substantive speaker_own asserts
Because vaccine 'failures' may very likely not be down to the individual (didn't respond to the vaccine, insufficientimmunity, etc.), but rather down to epidemiology. needs context uncertain explicit hedge asserts
As a vaccinated person, spend a lot of time with an unvaccinatedinfected person and you'll likely get COVID - the risk is obviously much less, but I'm not convinced our 95%effectiveness will hold up in a world of many unvaccinated people, variants, COVID still circulating, and, most importantly, social interactions back to near-normal. needs context uncertain explicit hedge asserts
(Although I don't know what the hell is up in the Seychelles - example of a lot of unvaccinatedpeople coming in, followed by high levels of social interactions, with a lot of post vaccination infections. own voice, substantive speaker_own asserts

In context

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  1. 2021-05-17 07:08 Robert F. Garry open
    Agreed - I don't think the US is going to get to sufficient coverage to drive the virus to low-low-no. Most Republicans will not get the vax. No way that sufficient vaccination happens elsewhere it's needed in the world (eg. South America, Southern Africa) so always a source of new variants. Don't think SC2 is going to run out of mutational space anytime soon [we're just seeing the path of least resistance repeated seemingly a couple of times]. Best case scenario in the US is a slow burn with spikes. As Eddie implied HKU1 and OC43 are probably best look forward towhat SC2 has in store. OC43 for one has been exploring a lot of it's mutational space over decades.
  2. 2021-05-17 07:13 Robert F. Garry open
    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/663
  3. 2021-05-17 07:17 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Yup, we'll see relief in the short term and vaccination can definitely be the end game - however, only if we think about this as being a global problem and not a national one.
  4. 2021-05-17 07:18 Kristian G. Andersen open
    This is pretty key: https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1009509
  5. 2021-05-17 07:24 Kristian G. Andersen
    I also think we're seeing _some_ evidence for post vaccination infections in clusters - i.e., super spreading. Why? Because vaccine 'failures' may very likely not be down to the individual (didn't respond to the vaccine, insufficientimmunity, etc.), but rather down to epidemiology. As a vaccinated person, spend a lot of time with an unvaccinatedinfected person and you'll likely get COVID - the risk is obviously much less, but I'm not convinced our 95%effectiveness will hold up in a world of many unvaccinated people, variants, COVID still circulating, and, most importantly, social interactions back to near-normal. We'll see - Israel. (Although I don't know what the hell is up in the Seychelles - example of a lot of unvaccinatedpeople coming in, followed by high levels of social interactions, with a lot of post vaccination infections. But they're not using the best vaccines...)
  6. 2021-05-17 07:31 Robert F. Garry open
    "vaccine 'failures' may very likely not be down to the individual" That's another good way of stating the dirty little secret of vaccination. It's not about the individual, but about the population.
  7. 2021-05-17 07:33 Robert F. Garry open
    Agree, the whole thing about not using the best vaccines likely becomes key. The stabilized mRNA constructs good- most everything else less good for the "end game."
  8. 2021-05-17 07:48 Kristian G. Andersen open
    To the virological post - is Bob's post online? A lot of people linked to that so while I agree Bill's post might have been a little too much, I think it's important Bob's post is online and available.
  9. 2021-05-17 07:51 Andrew Rambaut open
    I couldn't move Bill's reply on its own. I also just want to have a quick look over. I may just remove the replies, moveit back and then lock it.

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