A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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We have been in a pretty strong lockdown over the entire vaccination period so decline in cases probably not downto vaccine (much improved death rate of course). The question is what happens next?
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What happens next is indeed the big question - meanwhile, following the invasion of the nonAustralian marsupial this reptilian creature appeared on my dashboard during the drive in. [shared file(s): IMG_1712.JPG]
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.... the virus mutates, causing further waves. Unless we get many more people vaccinated and updates boosters.
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Agreed - I don't think the US is going to get to sufficient coverage to drive the virus to low-low-no. Most Republicans will not get the vax. No way that sufficient vaccination happens elsewhere it's needed in the world (eg. South America, Southern Africa) so always a source of new variants. Don't think SC2 is going to run out of mutational space anytime soon [we're just seeing the path of least resistance repeated seemingly a couple of times]. Best case scenario in the US is a slow burn with spikes. As Eddie implied HKU1 and OC43 are probably best look forward towhat SC2 has in store. OC43 for one has been exploring a lot of it's mutational space over decades.
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2021-05-17 07:13
Robert F. Garry
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/663
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Yup, we'll see relief in the short term and vaccination can definitely be the end game - however, only if we think about this as being a global problem and not a national one.
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This is pretty key: https://journals.plos.org/plospathogens/article?id=10.1371/journal.ppat.1009509
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I also think we're seeing _some_ evidence for post vaccination infections in clusters - i.e., super spreading. Why? Because vaccine 'failures' may very likely not be down to the individual (didn't respond to the vaccine, insufficientimmunity, etc.), but rather down to epidemiology. As a vaccinated person, spend a lot of time with an unvaccinatedinfected person and you'll likely get COVID - the risk is obviously much less, but I'm not convinced our 95%effectiveness will hold up in a world of many unvaccinated people, variants, COVID still circulating, and, most importantly, social interactions back to near-normal. We'll see - Israel. (Although I don't know what the hell is up in the Seychelles - example of a lot of unvaccinatedpeople coming in, followed by high levels of social interactions, with a lot of post vaccination infections. But they're not using the best vaccines...)
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"vaccine 'failures' may very likely not be down to the individual" That's another good way of stating the dirty little secret of vaccination. It's not about the individual, but about the population.