Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.823 [SLACK_001037] · slack_pm:msg:08582

Date: 2021-05-17 06:57
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Robert F. Garry

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What happens next is indeed the big question - meanwhile, following the invasion of the nonAustralian marsupial this reptilian creature appeared on my dashboard during the drive in. [shared file(s): IMG_1712.JPG]

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-05-17 06:05 Robert F. Garry open

Too soon to declare victory and yes a variety of other factors could be at play but the curve is coming down in theUS. Other "high-vax" counties it seems to be similar. Still less than half with even a partial vaccine course. You can add in the previously infected (symptomatic or not) plus some measure of protection from seasonal cov infections, but those are guesses. Questions - 1. safe to saw the decreases are vaccine related or not? 2. If so what thresholdlevel of immunization (based in Isreal, UK and UK) makes a dent in new cases? 3. What's the likelihood that variants and other factors make the downturn a temporary illusion if as seems likely vaccine coverge peters out and we hit maybe not too far north of 50%. [shared file(s): image.png]
2021-05-17 06:10 Andrew Rambaut open

We have been in a pretty strong lockdown over the entire vaccination period so decline in cases probably not downto vaccine (much improved death rate of course). The question is what happens next?
2021-05-17 06:57 Robert F. Garry

What happens next is indeed the big question - meanwhile, following the invasion of the nonAustralian marsupial this reptilian creature appeared on my dashboard during the drive in. [shared file(s): IMG_1712.JPG]
2021-05-17 06:57 Kristian G. Andersen open

.... the virus mutates, causing further waves. Unless we get many more people vaccinated and updates boosters.
2021-05-17 07:08 Robert F. Garry open

Agreed - I don't think the US is going to get to sufficient coverage to drive the virus to low-low-no. Most Republicans will not get the vax. No way that sufficient vaccination happens elsewhere it's needed in the world (eg. South America, Southern Africa) so always a source of new variants. Don't think SC2 is going to run out of mutational space anytime soon [we're just seeing the path of least resistance repeated seemingly a couple of times]. Best case scenario in the US is a slow burn with spikes. As Eddie implied HKU1 and OC43 are probably best look forward towhat SC2 has in store. OC43 for one has been exploring a lot of it's mutational space over decades.
2021-05-17 07:13 Robert F. Garry open

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/663
2021-05-17 07:17 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yup, we'll see relief in the short term and vaccination can definitely be the end game - however, only if we think about this as being a global problem and not a national one.

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