Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.823 [SLACK_001037] · slack_pm:msg:08581

Date: 2021-05-17 06:10
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut
Topics: Vaccines Masks, lockdowns and NPIs

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We have been in a pretty strong lockdown over the entire vaccination period so decline in cases probably not downto vaccine (much improved death rate of course). The question is what happens next?

Extracted statements

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
We have been in a pretty strong lockdown over the entire vaccination period so decline in cases probably not downto vaccine (much improved death rate of course).	needs context	uncertain explicit hedge	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

We have been in a pretty strong lockdown over the entire vaccination period so decline in cases probably not downto vaccine (much improved death rate of course).

needs context

uncertain explicit hedge

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-05-17 06:05 Robert F. Garry open

Too soon to declare victory and yes a variety of other factors could be at play but the curve is coming down in theUS. Other "high-vax" counties it seems to be similar. Still less than half with even a partial vaccine course. You can add in the previously infected (symptomatic or not) plus some measure of protection from seasonal cov infections, but those are guesses. Questions - 1. safe to saw the decreases are vaccine related or not? 2. If so what thresholdlevel of immunization (based in Isreal, UK and UK) makes a dent in new cases? 3. What's the likelihood that variants and other factors make the downturn a temporary illusion if as seems likely vaccine coverge peters out and we hit maybe not too far north of 50%. [shared file(s): image.png]
2021-05-17 06:10 Andrew Rambaut

We have been in a pretty strong lockdown over the entire vaccination period so decline in cases probably not downto vaccine (much improved death rate of course). The question is what happens next?
2021-05-17 06:57 Robert F. Garry open

What happens next is indeed the big question - meanwhile, following the invasion of the nonAustralian marsupial this reptilian creature appeared on my dashboard during the drive in. [shared file(s): IMG_1712.JPG]
2021-05-17 06:57 Kristian G. Andersen open

.... the virus mutates, causing further waves. Unless we get many more people vaccinated and updates boosters.
2021-05-17 07:08 Robert F. Garry open

Agreed - I don't think the US is going to get to sufficient coverage to drive the virus to low-low-no. Most Republicans will not get the vax. No way that sufficient vaccination happens elsewhere it's needed in the world (eg. South America, Southern Africa) so always a source of new variants. Don't think SC2 is going to run out of mutational space anytime soon [we're just seeing the path of least resistance repeated seemingly a couple of times]. Best case scenario in the US is a slow burn with spikes. As Eddie implied HKU1 and OC43 are probably best look forward towhat SC2 has in store. OC43 for one has been exploring a lot of it's mutational space over decades.
2021-05-17 07:13 Robert F. Garry open

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/663

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