COVID-19 Records

Private channel session 1161

28 messages over 4h 20m, 2021-03-27 – 2021-03-27.

A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.

  1. 2021-03-27 06:34 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.642
    :boom::boom::boom::boom::boom:https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-lab-theory-robert-redfield-no-evidence/
  2. 2021-03-27 06:35 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.642
    More of this!
  3. 2021-03-27 07:06 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.642
    I was not gentle....
  4. 2021-03-27 07:12 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.642
    No reason to be it's bullshit and in fact as the WashPost story said people are getting killed - kid gloves off for all ofthem, including especially Alina, Metzl, Lipstich, eDim, Jesse, Frieden. After Metzl has his 60 Minutes moment I amsure you (we) will be ready too!
  5. 2021-03-27 07:29 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.642
    In case you ahvn't seen: https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/03/26/1021263/bat-covid-coronavirus-cause-origin-wuhan/
  6. 2021-03-27 07:32 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.643
    @Kristian Andersen does a great job with CBS of making the point about teh animals at the market that literally blow-up the lab leak theories. "We know that the first epidemiologically linked cluster of cases came from the Huanan market and we know the virus was found in environmental samples -- including animal cages -- at the market," he said. "Any 'lab leak' theory would have to account for that scenario -- which it simply can't, without invoking a major conspiracy and cover up by Chinese scientists and authorities."
  7. 2021-03-27 07:34 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.643
    Eddie's raccoon dogs plus the CNN video blow-up the assertion by Jacobson, Alina et al that there weren't any mammals at the Huanan Market.
  8. 2021-03-27 07:38 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.643
    Also good to point out that the fact that some of the earlier cases in Wuhan also had links to other Wet Markets - nota stretch to believe that a batch of infected or cross-infected animals was distributed from South China seedingHuanan and other markets.
  9. 2021-03-27 07:40 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.643
    Lineage A to B shift also key point of discussion IMO.
  10. 2021-03-27 07:56 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.643
    Here's another key point that @Eddie Holmes made a year ago and its stuck with me. The culling of the animals atthe Huanan Market was a perfectly reasonable thing to do - in fact the correct thing to do from a Pubic Healthstandpoint. It was obvious that the market was a focus of spread so going in and disinecting and sacking the animalsto save lives was the right move. Sure -in hindsight - we can lament the fact that it was a missed opportunity todirectly swab infected animals. But, the epi so abundantly clear that they judged that wasn't necessary - shutting down the source of infections - and cases with links to the market showed up over one month - was a prudent move.
  11. 2021-03-27 08:03 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.643
    It's just my opinion, but i think we all need to get used to being "jerks" in the media over the next few weeks. [shared file(s): image.png]
  12. 2021-03-27 08:04 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.643
    Maybe another "frame-worthy" one?
  13. 2021-03-27 08:16 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.643
    Fox>60Minutes? 60 Minutes giving airtime for Metzl to cherry-pick US intelligence. https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-redfield-theory-coronavirus-wuhan-lab-evidence"The U.S. intelligence community continues to believe the virus originated in animals and was not leaked from a lab."
  14. 2021-03-27 08:40 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.643
    To be honest, I would rather not be a jerk, however, when a former CDC director comes out and says "this came from the lab" without providing _any_ evidence whatsoever and perpetuating falsehoods, the gloves are off - just not acceptable. I turned down a bunch of interviews yesterday, but decided on providing comments to CBS because ofthem airing the 60m segment....Totally agree on the importance of pointing out why they decontaminated the market - I have been saying the same since January 2020. Imagine if they hadn't done that... It's just idiotic to say that they did this "to cover up".As for links to other markets in the beginning - @Robert Garry do you have any good articles on that? I'd like to dig alittle deeper into the A/B split taking that into consideration...
  15. 2021-03-27 08:49 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.644
    Qun2020:- Worth revisiting in light of new info about lineages A and B. actually has the information that the lab leak group want to dismiss- the early cases were associated with other wet markets not just the Huanan Wet Market. [shared file(s): nejmoa2001316.pdf]
  16. 2021-03-27 08:55 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.644
    Here is the key Table about the early cases - All the Huanan Market cases lineage B. The other early ones linked toother wet markets lineage A. @Andrew Rambaut or @Eddie Holmes may have more detailed info. I tried to capture this in my natural origins diagram above. [shared file(s): image.png]
  17. 2021-03-27 08:58 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.644
    Of course A "ancestral" to B so any theory on early emergence has to capture the fact that both lineages associated with wet markets early on....
  18. 2021-03-27 09:02 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.644
    Other key fact - just to put it here- WA1 - a traveler from Wuhan to Washington State - lineage A had 3 ancestrasnps per @Andrew Rambaut
  19. 2021-03-27 09:07 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.644
    Thanks Bob. I'll head to the desert for a few hours to clear my mind, but I'll comb through this carefully. And yes, agreed about WA1 and I actually speculated about that a while back -https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1338993282148302848?s=20
  20. 2021-03-27 09:34 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.644
    Interestingly also there is a Malaysian case with exactly the same WA1 haplotype (Malaysia... pangolins...). But probably coincidence.
  21. 2021-03-27 09:45 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.644
    Yup! Take a look at the alignment I shared yesterday... I think it's interesting
  22. 2021-03-27 10:08 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.644
    Do we know anymore details about the Malaysian and WA1 cases - seems key.
  23. 2021-03-27 10:08 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.644
    Do we know anything more about the epi of the Malaysian or WA1 cases - seems very key. [shared file(s): image.png]
  24. 2021-03-27 10:19 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.644
    The Malaysian one you included has an additional SNP difference away from RaTG13 - I am pretty sure there was one that was identical to WA1 (but I did this analysis back in July so have lost all memory of it. Will dig out my notes.
  25. 2021-03-27 10:21 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.645
    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/case-of-wuhan-coronavirus-detected-in-washington-state-first-inunited-states/ Here's the news article about WA1
  26. 2021-03-27 10:34 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.645
    It's 416886 from February 4, 2020 according to @Andrew Rambaut Dec 6.
  27. 2021-03-27 10:35 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.645
    I don't know what to make of the Angolan/Tanzanian ones - need to get into a different head space for that.
  28. 2021-03-27 10:54 Robert F. Garry open PDF p.645
    I'm convinced based on serology that "something" with sarbecoviruses has been going on in Africa for a while. The rest of you have some appropriate "head space" to consider this. I have *no clue* myself, but what are the odds of aseparate emergence of a deeper lineage A ancestor? Seems impossible to consider, but we live in a strange world. Are any other mutations in immunosuppressed patients "back to bat?"