Slack / Private Message Drop — page 399

fashion. [2021-01-14 14:39:08] [Andrew Rambaut] Within host (and with the additional benefit of recombination) these combinations are readily obtainable. [2021-01-14 15:20:39] [Eddie Holmes] Given the low frequency of chronic infections compared to the huge number with 'normal' durations of infection, doesn't the fact that we are seeing the same sort of constellation of mutations evolve and spread 3 times independently suggest that they have a major advantage at the population level? [2021-01-14 15:46:38] [Andrew Rambaut] Yes - they do. But I think they can't get there by progressive steps in sequential infections - there are troughs (we see all of these mutations appear individually many times). [2021-01-14 15:47:30] [Andrew Rambaut] So the chronic infections offer an opportunity for these to arise in combination. Chronic infections are rare as a proportion of infections but there are shed loads of infections now. [2021-01-14 15:47:54] [Eddie Holmes] Indeed. Not saying the theory is wrong, just that there are some loose ends. I can only imagine how Alina and gang have reacted to this: [shared file(s): s41591-020-01205-5.pdf] [2021-01-14 15:54:07] [Andrew Rambaut] Nice piece. Angie is a true hero. I can't imagine what she must put up with (you probably can more than me, Eddie, but women get it so much worse). [2021-01-14 15:58:08] [Eddie Holmes] She's a 1000X times tougher than me. I find it very difficult and have to get off social media as much as I can. I also hate dealing with the mainstream media. She must get endless shit. No idea how she manages it. [2021-01-14 16:03:40] [Kristian Andersen] Angie is indeed tough as nails - true hero! I *do* wonder if she has a hard time dealing with all the shit she must be getting - she _is_ moving to Canada after all. Can't blame for for leaving this dumpster fire - I'd do the same in a heartbeat if anybody up north wanted me. [2021-01-14 16:04:32] [Eddie Holmes] There's an opening at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Labs were recently renovated and cleaned. [2021-01-14 16:06:50] [Kristian Andersen] > Yes - they do. But I think they can't get there by progressive steps in sequential infections - there are troughs (we see all of these mutations appear individually many times). Agreed. The way I'm thinking about this is that there must be an initial selection pressure that drives the fixation of those mutations - almost certainly, that selection pressure is intrahost. Once that variant is out - and it's more transmissible / able to evade immunity - then it's a different selection pressure driving its fixation in the population. I too just think there's a really unfortunate relationship between really fit intrahost, means you're really fit in the larger population.