Slack / Private Message Drop — page 1037

(but nothing like Sebastian) [2021-12-01 14:43:32] [Kristian Andersen] Heh - strange. Given the epi data out of RSA right now though, I'm leaning towards a more recent estimate (and lower doubling time) being the most likely scenario. [2021-12-01 15:23:11] [Kristian Andersen] Andrew - are you okay with me introducing you to the NYC WW folks to compare notes? I realize mentioning the UK stuff might not have been that smart, but I have heard it from a few people. Is there anybody overseeing the wastewater efforts? [2021-12-01 15:27:40] [Andrew Rambaut] Nick Loman has eyes on the WW [2021-12-01 15:28:59] [Kristian Andersen] Seems fitting :wink:. Lemme ping Nick first. [2021-12-03 02:30:23] [Andrew Rambaut] Just putting this here first - I am not particularly happy with the some of analysis in the market origins paper. As I have said before, a continuous 2D KDE makes no sense for the within market map as it is not a continuous space. I am also not that comfortable with the use of KDEs in Wuhan. A KDE is an estimate of a continuous probability distribution from which the samples are drawn. The contours are then areas that contain a particular proportion of the probability. Saying that the market lies within a particular contour isn't really saying what we are implying it is saying. I think we need to have a discussion about this with Marc, Philippe and Moritz to nail the spatial stats. Or simply go the route of more of a descriptive narrative - show there are spatial correlations but not try and get technical. [2021-12-03 05:07:01] [Andrew Rambaut] I just had a chat with Moritz about this and he agrees about the KDEs - it is not something that any spatial infectious disease epidemiologist would use. I worry it will elicit attacks from people that miss the inherent strength of the signal. [2021-12-03 05:07:38] [Andrew Rambaut] I also think we need to start with by far the strongest piece of evidence and that is the environmental sampling in the market. [2021-12-03 05:08:31] [Andrew Rambaut] If this causes a problem with Mike then perhaps we should split the papers. [2021-12-03 06:05:56] [Robert Garry] Agree with all the above! [2021-12-03 06:31:26] [Robert Garry] I liked the idea of making the market more of a grid. And, details need to be correct - or as correct as we can get them. I tend to believe that this map of the PCR positives is more accurate than some of the other maps. It also