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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.799 [SLACK_001013] · slack_pm:msg:08302

Date: 2021-05-13 14:16
Type: chat message · slack
mentioned: Kristian G. Andersen
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut

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@Kristian Andersen So if these viruses have been lurking in the countryside for months, why do they all arrive inMumbai at the same time.

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2021-05-13 14:14 Kristian G. Andersen open

No?
2021-05-13 14:14 Andrew Rambaut open

In the UK the raw figures seem like it is growing but actually it is focused in a few places and there are some good epi reasons for growth
2021-05-13 14:15 Andrew Rambaut open

@Kristian Andersen Not really - I would expect the first virus with P681R that arrives in Mombai to win.
2021-05-13 14:15 Andrew Rambaut open

@Kristian Andersen Exponential growth is a killer
2021-05-13 14:16 Andrew Rambaut

@Kristian Andersen So if these viruses have been lurking in the countryside for months, why do they all arrive inMumbai at the same time.
2021-05-13 14:17 Andrew Rambaut open

@Kristian Andersen Seems likely to be huge mass gatherings (which India does well I hear) amplifying many variants
2021-05-13 14:18 Andrew Rambaut open

So I just don't know if it is more transmissible. But I really don't think it is much more transmissible than B.1.1.7.
2021-05-13 14:19 Kristian G. Andersen open

That last point is really key - being 60%+ more transmissible than B.1.1.7 just seems nuts. Unless there's something funky going on with B.1.1.7's own transmission advantage (so it can be lower under certain circumstances whereB.1.617 would be higher - not impossible).
2021-05-13 14:22 Kristian G. Andersen open

@Kristian Andersen Really good point. But what if P681R arrives first, then spread across the country, followed bylocal divergence. Do we know how clustered the diversity is? If you're getting pretty much _all_ diversity into the UK,that'd suggest "not very" - i.e., what I'm suggesting probably not very likely compared to the competing hypothesis ofsurge-driven spread.

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