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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.798 [SLACK_001012] · slack_pm:msg:08298

Page text: p.798 · original PDF

Date
2021-05-13 14:14
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Kristian G. Andersen

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No?

In context

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  1. 2021-05-13 14:13 Andrew Rambaut open
    That doesn't feel like the virus being more transmissible - that is like lots of viruses entering some very high transmission populations.
  2. 2021-05-13 14:13 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Hmmm
  3. 2021-05-13 14:14 Andrew Rambaut open
    But it has P681R so is very plausibly more transmissible
  4. 2021-05-13 14:14 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Not necessarily though - if e.g., P681R explains the increased transmissibility, then you'd see the full diversity
  5. 2021-05-13 14:14 Kristian G. Andersen
    No?
  6. 2021-05-13 14:14 Andrew Rambaut open
    In the UK the raw figures seem like it is growing but actually it is focused in a few places and there are some good epi reasons for growth
  7. 2021-05-13 14:15 Andrew Rambaut open
    @Kristian Andersen Not really - I would expect the first virus with P681R that arrives in Mombai to win.
  8. 2021-05-13 14:15 Andrew Rambaut open
    @Kristian Andersen Exponential growth is a killer
  9. 2021-05-13 14:16 Andrew Rambaut open
    @Kristian Andersen So if these viruses have been lurking in the countryside for months, why do they all arrive inMumbai at the same time.

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