A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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@Kristian Andersen Not really - I would expect the first virus with P681R that arrives in Mombai to win.
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@Kristian Andersen Exponential growth is a killer
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@Kristian Andersen So if these viruses have been lurking in the countryside for months, why do they all arrive inMumbai at the same time.
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@Kristian Andersen Seems likely to be huge mass gatherings (which India does well I hear) amplifying many variants
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2021-05-13 14:18
Andrew Rambaut
So I just don't know if it is more transmissible. But I really don't think it is much more transmissible than B.1.1.7.
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That last point is really key - being 60%+ more transmissible than B.1.1.7 just seems nuts. Unless there's something funky going on with B.1.1.7's own transmission advantage (so it can be lower under certain circumstances whereB.1.617 would be higher - not impossible).
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@Kristian Andersen Really good point. But what if P681R arrives first, then spread across the country, followed bylocal divergence. Do we know how clustered the diversity is? If you're getting pretty much _all_ diversity into the UK,that'd suggest "not very" - i.e., what I'm suggesting probably not very likely compared to the competing hypothesis ofsurge-driven spread.
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Yeah - the modellers are so sure. But it just seems wrong to expect there is a simple mutational path to 3-fold more transmissibility over Wuhan (the figure mentioned today) and it didn't happen before now.
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I can't believe someone can say 300% more transmissible and not just pause.