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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.799 [SLACK_001013] · slack_pm:msg:08306

Date: 2021-05-13 14:22
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen

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@Kristian Andersen Really good point. But what if P681R arrives first, then spread across the country, followed bylocal divergence. Do we know how clustered the diversity is? If you're getting pretty much _all_ diversity into the UK,that'd suggest "not very" - i.e., what I'm suggesting probably not very likely compared to the competing hypothesis ofsurge-driven spread.

In context

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2021-05-13 14:16 Andrew Rambaut open

@Kristian Andersen So if these viruses have been lurking in the countryside for months, why do they all arrive inMumbai at the same time.
2021-05-13 14:17 Andrew Rambaut open

@Kristian Andersen Seems likely to be huge mass gatherings (which India does well I hear) amplifying many variants
2021-05-13 14:18 Andrew Rambaut open

So I just don't know if it is more transmissible. But I really don't think it is much more transmissible than B.1.1.7.
2021-05-13 14:19 Kristian G. Andersen open

That last point is really key - being 60%+ more transmissible than B.1.1.7 just seems nuts. Unless there's something funky going on with B.1.1.7's own transmission advantage (so it can be lower under certain circumstances whereB.1.617 would be higher - not impossible).
2021-05-13 14:22 Kristian G. Andersen

@Kristian Andersen Really good point. But what if P681R arrives first, then spread across the country, followed bylocal divergence. Do we know how clustered the diversity is? If you're getting pretty much _all_ diversity into the UK,that'd suggest "not very" - i.e., what I'm suggesting probably not very likely compared to the competing hypothesis ofsurge-driven spread.
2021-05-13 14:28 Andrew Rambaut open

Yeah - the modellers are so sure. But it just seems wrong to expect there is a simple mutational path to 3-fold more transmissibility over Wuhan (the figure mentioned today) and it didn't happen before now.
2021-05-13 14:28 Andrew Rambaut open

I can't believe someone can say 300% more transmissible and not just pause.
2021-05-13 14:30 Kristian G. Andersen open

Well, Oli and Nuno said 220% more transmissible for P.1, so there's that :wink:. But I agree - I think we have to be very very careful lot to over interpret the data, which is much too easy to do. But ifwe're saying that SARS-CoV-2 now has an R0 of ~8-9 and no longer ~2.5 then, well shit...
2021-05-13 14:32 Kristian G. Andersen open

Somebody on Twitter got it. [shared file(s): Screen Shot 2021-05-13 at 2.28.55 PM.png]

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