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Slack / Private Message Drop, pp.798-799 [SLACK_001012] · slack_pm:msg:08301

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@Kristian Andersen Exponential growth is a killer

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2021-05-13 14:14 Kristian G. Andersen open

Not necessarily though - if e.g., P681R explains the increased transmissibility, then you'd see the full diversity
2021-05-13 14:14 Kristian G. Andersen open

No?
2021-05-13 14:14 Andrew Rambaut open

In the UK the raw figures seem like it is growing but actually it is focused in a few places and there are some good epi reasons for growth
2021-05-13 14:15 Andrew Rambaut open

@Kristian Andersen Not really - I would expect the first virus with P681R that arrives in Mombai to win.
2021-05-13 14:15 Andrew Rambaut

@Kristian Andersen Exponential growth is a killer
2021-05-13 14:16 Andrew Rambaut open

@Kristian Andersen So if these viruses have been lurking in the countryside for months, why do they all arrive inMumbai at the same time.
2021-05-13 14:17 Andrew Rambaut open

@Kristian Andersen Seems likely to be huge mass gatherings (which India does well I hear) amplifying many variants
2021-05-13 14:18 Andrew Rambaut open

So I just don't know if it is more transmissible. But I really don't think it is much more transmissible than B.1.1.7.
2021-05-13 14:19 Kristian G. Andersen open

That last point is really key - being 60%+ more transmissible than B.1.1.7 just seems nuts. Unless there's something funky going on with B.1.1.7's own transmission advantage (so it can be lower under certain circumstances whereB.1.617 would be higher - not impossible).