COVID-19 Records

Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.798 [SLACK_001012] · slack_pm:msg:08296

Page text: p.798 · original PDF

Date
2021-05-13 14:14
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker
Andrew Rambaut

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

But it has P681R so is very plausibly more transmissible

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

  1. 2021-05-13 14:13 Andrew Rambaut open
    But the full diversity is being imported into UK.
  2. 2021-05-13 14:13 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Became HUGELY prevalent during the surge, but it was surge-driven, not mutation-driven (most likely)
  3. 2021-05-13 14:13 Andrew Rambaut open
    That doesn't feel like the virus being more transmissible - that is like lots of viruses entering some very high transmission populations.
  4. 2021-05-13 14:13 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Hmmm
  5. 2021-05-13 14:14 Andrew Rambaut
    But it has P681R so is very plausibly more transmissible
  6. 2021-05-13 14:14 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Not necessarily though - if e.g., P681R explains the increased transmissibility, then you'd see the full diversity
  7. 2021-05-13 14:14 Kristian G. Andersen open
    No?
  8. 2021-05-13 14:14 Andrew Rambaut open
    In the UK the raw figures seem like it is growing but actually it is focused in a few places and there are some good epi reasons for growth
  9. 2021-05-13 14:15 Andrew Rambaut open
    @Kristian Andersen Not really - I would expect the first virus with P681R that arrives in Mombai to win.

Full conversation →