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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.791 [SLACK_001005] · slack_pm:msg:08238

Page text: p.791 · original PDF

Date
2021-05-12 23:24
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Kristian G. Andersen

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Andrew you nailed that one way back - Ebola virus in West Africa...

In context

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  1. 2021-05-12 23:21 Andrew Rambaut open
    You don't really need to get into the individual arguments I think - just address the non equivalence of saying there isno evidence for either hypothesis - one has a prior probability that is vanishingly small so requires at least some evidence the natural hypothesis is everything else.
  2. 2021-05-12 23:22 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Yeah, but the prior doesn't work with them because, Wuhan.
  3. 2021-05-12 23:22 Edward C. Holmes open
    I would add: 1. Long evolutionary gap to Yunnan bats. 2. Yunnan bats look close because they mainly sampled Yunnan bats. 3. Two lineages in Wuhan at different markets. 4. No reason not a publish a closer virus before the pandemic.
  4. 2021-05-12 23:23 Andrew Rambaut open
    I love this one: > --Closest known (not that close) viral relatives in nature are ~1000 miles from Wuhan So the known relatives are not the close relatives and thus the fact they are far away is expected.
  5. 2021-05-12 23:24 Kristian G. Andersen
    Andrew you nailed that one way back - Ebola virus in West Africa...
  6. 2021-05-12 23:24 Andrew Rambaut open
    > To call this scenario a "conspiracy theory" is inappropriate and unfair to everyone involved.
  7. 2021-05-12 23:25 Edward C. Holmes open
    Send them this to explain the point: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MMiKyfd6hA0
  8. 2021-05-12 23:26 Andrew Rambaut open
    > I would never hang my hat on any of it. But I would send a letter to Science
  9. 2021-05-12 23:30 Edward C. Holmes open
    False equivalence is that the gamey tasting menu is full of bloody viruses (although we can't use this). Some ofthese animals were sick and sold.

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