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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.791 [SLACK_001005] · slack_pm:msg:08236

Page text: p.791 · original PDF

Date
2021-05-12 23:22
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Edward C. Holmes
Topics
Natural origin / zoonotic spillover

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

I would add: 1. Long evolutionary gap to Yunnan bats. 2. Yunnan bats look close because they mainly sampled Yunnan bats. 3. Two lineages in Wuhan at different markets. 4. No reason not a publish a closer virus before the pandemic.

In context

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  1. 2021-05-12 23:18 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Yeah, not arguments - just speculations from him. I think it's worth engaging - clearly they haven't really thought that hard about it.Probably also worth having a little cheat-list of direct evidence for natural emergence because I see this coming upmore and more. The only thing we're missing is an intermediate host - that may or may exist - or even existed.
  2. 2021-05-12 23:19 Edward C. Holmes open
    Let's sleep on it an do it carefully
  3. 2021-05-12 23:21 Andrew Rambaut open
    You don't really need to get into the individual arguments I think - just address the non equivalence of saying there isno evidence for either hypothesis - one has a prior probability that is vanishingly small so requires at least some evidence the natural hypothesis is everything else.
  4. 2021-05-12 23:22 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Yeah, but the prior doesn't work with them because, Wuhan.
  5. 2021-05-12 23:22 Edward C. Holmes
    I would add: 1. Long evolutionary gap to Yunnan bats. 2. Yunnan bats look close because they mainly sampled Yunnan bats. 3. Two lineages in Wuhan at different markets. 4. No reason not a publish a closer virus before the pandemic.
  6. 2021-05-12 23:23 Andrew Rambaut open
    I love this one: > --Closest known (not that close) viral relatives in nature are ~1000 miles from Wuhan So the known relatives are not the close relatives and thus the fact they are far away is expected.
  7. 2021-05-12 23:24 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Andrew you nailed that one way back - Ebola virus in West Africa...
  8. 2021-05-12 23:24 Andrew Rambaut open
    > To call this scenario a "conspiracy theory" is inappropriate and unfair to everyone involved.
  9. 2021-05-12 23:25 Edward C. Holmes open
    Send them this to explain the point: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MMiKyfd6hA0

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