A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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It's my biggest fear that a few months down the line we're going to see many (many!) of these and I can't convince myself that it's _not_ going to happen. I have an unhealthy habit of refreshing the epi curve from Israel, which has been a huge success for vaccines. I want to keep it that way - but I can't shake this sense of doom (which is just partof being Kristian Andersen, I think...).
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I think the best way to test it is to compare positives in recently vaccinated (i.e. < 21 days) vs > 21 days as that will control for demographcis
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Yeah.
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Breakthrough are not everything though. Vaccination may still reduce probability of onwards transmission.
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2021-04-15 13:24
Kristian G. Andersen
Definitely
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I would like to numbers down to single figures as quickly as possible though
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No question the vaccines put a huge damper on everything, but I'm thinking about the long game of variants vs immunity. Clearly immunity from natural infection isn't working very well in places like Brazil, Iran, India, RSA, etc. It's unclear to me if that's because of a difference in how strong immunity is between infection vs vaccine, or whether it's just a question of time.
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Not too soon to be thinking V2 of the vaccines - yeah this is going to be a long game. May hit >1M cases per dayin the world not too long from now...
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We are already - I am on a committee for recommending the candidates to be developed.