A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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@Andrew Rambaut - do you have any insights about vaccine "breakthroughs" from your data? We just picked up four - three B.1.1.7 and one P.1 with one of the B.1.1.7s having Eek (first time we have seen that here). B.1.1.7 ishigh frequency by now, so not all that surprising to see it, although 3/4 and one with Eek is outside of what we might expect. P.1 is also circulating, but likely <5%, so picking that one up in a breakthrough also isn't great.
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I have heard they are 'enriched' for 484K but not significantly so. I am actually trying to get access to the datastream
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It's my biggest fear that a few months down the line we're going to see many (many!) of these and I can't convince myself that it's _not_ going to happen. I have an unhealthy habit of refreshing the epi curve from Israel, which has been a huge success for vaccines. I want to keep it that way - but I can't shake this sense of doom (which is just partof being Kristian Andersen, I think...).
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I think the best way to test it is to compare positives in recently vaccinated (i.e. < 21 days) vs > 21 days as that will control for demographcis
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2021-04-15 13:23
Kristian G. Andersen
Yeah.
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Breakthrough are not everything though. Vaccination may still reduce probability of onwards transmission.
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Definitely
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I would like to numbers down to single figures as quickly as possible though
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No question the vaccines put a huge damper on everything, but I'm thinking about the long game of variants vs immunity. Clearly immunity from natural infection isn't working very well in places like Brazil, Iran, India, RSA, etc. It's unclear to me if that's because of a difference in how strong immunity is between infection vs vaccine, or whether it's just a question of time.