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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.708 [SLACK_000922] · slack_pm:msg:07427

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I would like to numbers down to single figures as quickly as possible though

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A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-04-15 13:23 Andrew Rambaut open

I think the best way to test it is to compare positives in recently vaccinated (i.e. < 21 days) vs > 21 days as that will control for demographcis
2021-04-15 13:23 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah.
2021-04-15 13:24 Andrew Rambaut open

Breakthrough are not everything though. Vaccination may still reduce probability of onwards transmission.
2021-04-15 13:24 Kristian G. Andersen open

Definitely
2021-04-15 13:25 Andrew Rambaut

I would like to numbers down to single figures as quickly as possible though
2021-04-15 13:26 Kristian G. Andersen open

No question the vaccines put a huge damper on everything, but I'm thinking about the long game of variants vs immunity. Clearly immunity from natural infection isn't working very well in places like Brazil, Iran, India, RSA, etc. It's unclear to me if that's because of a difference in how strong immunity is between infection vs vaccine, or whether it's just a question of time.
2021-04-15 13:55 Robert F. Garry open

Not too soon to be thinking V2 of the vaccines - yeah this is going to be a long game. May hit >1M cases per dayin the world not too long from now...
2021-04-15 13:57 Andrew Rambaut open

We are already - I am on a committee for recommending the candidates to be developed.
2021-04-15 13:58 Andrew Rambaut open

Currently recommending B.1.351 and B.1.1.7+E484K are taken forward - keeping options open for more.