Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.707 [SLACK_000921] · slack_pm:msg:07422

Date: 2021-04-15 13:23
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Vaccines

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It's my biggest fear that a few months down the line we're going to see many (many!) of these and I can't convince myself that it's _not_ going to happen. I have an unhealthy habit of refreshing the epi curve from Israel, which has been a huge success for vaccines. I want to keep it that way - but I can't shake this sense of doom (which is just partof being Kristian Andersen, I think...).

Extracted statements

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
I have an unhealthy habit of refreshing the epi curve from Israel, which has been a huge success for vaccines.	own voice, substantive	speaker_own	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

I have an unhealthy habit of refreshing the epi curve from Israel, which has been a huge success for vaccines.

own voice, substantive

speaker_own

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-04-15 12:24 Robert F. Garry open

It's a hit piece. Claims to be a science writer - hates people that can actually do science. You did a good job ofpointing out the sophistry, which describes the entire article.
2021-04-15 12:35 Robert F. Garry open

Again well done. What a real journalist would do is ask the straightforward questions; "Can you please clarify (a) ifyou are accusing Drs. Holmes and Zhengli of lying," "Just to clarify - are you saying Dr. Rasmussen is lying?" andDo you agree with these statements by "Bostickson...?" No journalist has done the same of Alina, Jamie, Relman etc.
2021-04-15 13:14 Kristian G. Andersen open

@Andrew Rambaut - do you have any insights about vaccine "breakthroughs" from your data? We just picked up four - three B.1.1.7 and one P.1 with one of the B.1.1.7s having Eek (first time we have seen that here). B.1.1.7 ishigh frequency by now, so not all that surprising to see it, although 3/4 and one with Eek is outside of what we might expect. P.1 is also circulating, but likely <5%, so picking that one up in a breakthrough also isn't great.
2021-04-15 13:20 Andrew Rambaut open

I have heard they are 'enriched' for 484K but not significantly so. I am actually trying to get access to the datastream
2021-04-15 13:23 Kristian G. Andersen

It's my biggest fear that a few months down the line we're going to see many (many!) of these and I can't convince myself that it's _not_ going to happen. I have an unhealthy habit of refreshing the epi curve from Israel, which has been a huge success for vaccines. I want to keep it that way - but I can't shake this sense of doom (which is just partof being Kristian Andersen, I think...).
2021-04-15 13:23 Andrew Rambaut open

I think the best way to test it is to compare positives in recently vaccinated (i.e. < 21 days) vs > 21 days as that will control for demographcis
2021-04-15 13:23 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah.
2021-04-15 13:24 Andrew Rambaut open

Breakthrough are not everything though. Vaccination may still reduce probability of onwards transmission.
2021-04-15 13:24 Kristian G. Andersen open

Definitely

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