Slack / Private Message Drop — page 708

[Andrew Rambaut] I think the best way to test it is to compare positives in recently vaccinated (i.e. < 21 days) vs > 21 days as that will control for demographcis [2021-04-15 13:23:33] [Kristian Andersen] Yeah. [2021-04-15 13:24:30] [Andrew Rambaut] Breakthrough are not everything though. Vaccination may still reduce probability of onwards transmission. [2021-04-15 13:24:41] [Kristian Andersen] Definitely [2021-04-15 13:25:13] [Andrew Rambaut] I would like to numbers down to single figures as quickly as possible though [2021-04-15 13:26:17] [Kristian Andersen] No question the vaccines put a huge damper on everything, but I'm thinking about the long game of variants vs immunity. Clearly immunity from natural infection isn't working very well in places like Brazil, Iran, India, RSA, etc. It's unclear to me if that's because of a difference in how strong immunity is between infection vs vaccine, or whether it's just a question of time. [2021-04-15 13:55:30] [Robert Garry] Not too soon to be thinking V2 of the vaccines - yeah this is going to be a long game. May hit >1M cases per day in the world not too long from now... [2021-04-15 13:57:16] [Andrew Rambaut] We are already - I am on a committee for recommending the candidates to be developed. [2021-04-15 13:58:02] [Andrew Rambaut] Currently recommending B.1.351 and B.1.1.7+E484K are taken forward - keeping options open for more. [2021-04-15 14:12:26] [Andrew Rambaut] @Eddie Holmes and @Kristian Andersen - you guys have talked to Anjana Ahuja for Jeremy's book? How was it? [2021-04-15 14:26:21] [Kristian Andersen] Just imagine what the 'variant' landscape is going to look like in three years from now if we don't dramatically decrease transmission... We're going to have huge number of co-circulating lineages - now's the time to ensure that doesn't happen... Yeah, Anjana was great and I had a fun chat with her - worth talking to her as she knows a lot of the background. [2021-04-15 14:37:53] [Eddie Holmes] Yes, she's good. It's going to be a great book.