Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, pp.598-599 [SLACK_000812] · slack_pm:msg:06251

Date: 2021-03-15 14:09
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Natural origin / zoonotic spillover

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I think there's _a lot_ of early unsampled diversity, which can help explain the A vs B split. Much focus turned to the Huanan market, where super spreading might have occurred, so we end up having very biased sampling early on.

Extracted statements

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
Much focus turned to the Huanan market, where super spreading might have occurred, so we end up having very biased sampling early on.	needs context	uncertain explicit hedge	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

Much focus turned to the Huanan market, where super spreading might have occurred, so we end up having very biased sampling early on.

needs context

uncertain explicit hedge

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-03-15 13:38 Edward C. Holmes open

Yes, Marion is cautious so they must have something. Hope they release soon. I may have told you but I also heard that they had discounted the Dec 1 case and the earliest known one is now Dec 8. I also think I heard that while this patient had no link to the market his parents had some sort of link to another live animal market. Not sure is this issomething or not.
2021-03-15 13:45 Robert F. Garry open

Dec 8 is consistent with the graph from the CCDC NEJM paper.
2021-03-15 13:46 Robert F. Garry open

Lots of questions for Kristian: [shared file(s): image.png]
2021-03-15 13:52 Edward C. Holmes open

Pathetic
2021-03-15 14:09 Kristian G. Andersen

I think there's _a lot_ of early unsampled diversity, which can help explain the A vs B split. Much focus turned to the Huanan market, where super spreading might have occurred, so we end up having very biased sampling early on.
2021-03-15 14:20 Robert F. Garry open

That seems right. But is the diversity in unsampled humans, unsampled animals or perhaps both. Only A and B lineages made it through the bottleneck.
2021-03-15 14:24 Robert F. Garry open

Another way to ask the questions: B came from A as Andrew said in the NatMicro paper. But did the split happen inan animal or after the human to animal transfer? Maybe doesn't really matter.

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