Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.384 [SLACK_000598] · slack_pm:msg:03997

Date: 2021-01-11 15:41
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen

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So just to conclude to see if I got this right: • One lineage rapidly expanding because it's inherently more transmissible - B.1.1.7. • Several other independent lineages - carrying mutations at 417 and 484 - expanding rapidly in areas of high standing immunity, probably due to escape. Possibly, Nelly is innocent - at least partially and she probably isn't alone responsible for the expansion of both theUK and RSA lineages.

In context

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2021-01-11 15:34 Andrew Rambaut open

(convergence to the same set of mutations)
2021-01-11 15:34 Kristian G. Andersen open

Didn't they mention a couple of months ago that they had a really fast moving lineage that didn't lead to symptoms? I'm wondering if any of that might actually be true - not really "fast" moving, but expanding rapidly and if in a lot ofpeople with previously immunity, maybe leading to less symptoms. That wouldn't be too bad.
2021-01-11 15:34 Kristian G. Andersen open

"They" being RSA
2021-01-11 15:35 Kristian G. Andersen open

(oh - wait, maybe that was Australia... Somewhere South :wink: )
2021-01-11 15:41 Kristian G. Andersen

So just to conclude to see if I got this right: • One lineage rapidly expanding because it's inherently more transmissible - B.1.1.7. • Several other independent lineages - carrying mutations at 417 and 484 - expanding rapidly in areas of high standing immunity, probably due to escape. Possibly, Nelly is innocent - at least partially and she probably isn't alone responsible for the expansion of both theUK and RSA lineages.
2021-01-11 15:42 Kristian G. Andersen open

B.1.1.7 might also have an 'immunity' phenotype in addition to the transmission phenotype. We'll know soon enough.
2021-01-11 15:42 Andrew Rambaut open

And Nelly on its own (in Wales) is not doing that much
2021-01-11 15:44 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yup. We have seen Nelly a couple of times in the US too and never associated with increased transmission (although all of that might just be down to chance). It's very plausible that when Nelly is hanging with her friends she might be naughty, but not when she's alone...
2021-01-11 15:50 Edward C. Holmes open

"Nelly is innocent" - we should start a campaign.

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