Slack / Private Message Drop — page 384

Agree. No comparative rates for RSA. It is just fast growing. [2021-01-11 15:33:50] [Andrew Rambaut] Although... there is a Finnish import of the RSA variant that has 681H. [2021-01-11 15:34:17] [Andrew Rambaut] (convergence to the same set of mutations) [2021-01-11 15:34:40] [Kristian Andersen] Didn't they mention a couple of months ago that they had a really fast moving lineage that didn't lead to symptoms? I'm wondering if any of that might actually be true - not really "fast" moving, but expanding rapidly and if in a lot of people with previously immunity, maybe leading to less symptoms. That wouldn't be too bad. [2021-01-11 15:34:52] [Kristian Andersen] "They" being RSA [2021-01-11 15:35:12] [Kristian Andersen] (oh - wait, maybe that was Australia... Somewhere South :wink: ) [2021-01-11 15:41:24] [Kristian Andersen] So just to conclude to see if I got this right: • One lineage rapidly expanding because it's inherently more transmissible - B.1.1.7. • Several other independent lineages - carrying mutations at 417 and 484 - expanding rapidly in areas of high standing immunity, probably due to escape. Possibly, Nelly is innocent - at least partially and she probably isn't alone responsible for the expansion of both the UK and RSA lineages. [2021-01-11 15:42:29] [Kristian Andersen] B.1.1.7 might also have an 'immunity' phenotype in addition to the transmission phenotype. We'll know soon enough. [2021-01-11 15:42:59] [Andrew Rambaut] And Nelly on its own (in Wales) is not doing that much [2021-01-11 15:44:52] [Kristian Andersen] Yup. We have seen Nelly a couple of times in the US too and never associated with increased transmission (although all of that might just be down to chance). It's very plausible that when Nelly is hanging with her friends she might be naughty, but not when she's alone... [2021-01-11 15:50:17] [Eddie Holmes] "Nelly is innocent" - we should start a campaign. [2021-01-11 15:51:50] [Kristian Andersen] I wanna be sure before we declare her innocent though. Eeek and Pooh though... Fucking bastards.