A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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Okay, cool - I'll have a chat with Karthik too - we haven't been able to get good estimates of the root TMRCA recently, but that may very well be on us.
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I'm heading out for an hour, but once I'm back lemme just clean up these alignments a little and share - just so wehave them archived here. :beer:
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> On January 21, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed the first U.S. case in a 35-year-old man living in Snohomish County. He had returned from Wuhan, China after visiting his family there, tothe U.S., landing at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on January 15, without any symptoms.
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And of course at that time Imperial College estimated Wuhan had 190-4000 cases by 12th Jan based on 3 exported cases.
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2020-12-06 12:00
Edward C. Holmes
@Kristian Andersen They also used my quote out of context...I was just referring to some of those shonky studies, particularly the Indian-origin one.
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Yeah, clearly a lot more cases going around at that time than was appreciated - and obviously not (directly) linked tothe seafood market. We don't really see any evidence of other "WA1" lineages in Wuhan, do we? All those early ones were "Hu-1"?
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Probable scenario - ongoing undetected transmission in Wuhan building up, then a big super spreading event at the seafood market where it gets detected. Cases following are then connected to that event and most genomes are sequenced from the super spreading event, but not the emergence. Makes sense I think
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The emergence itself could have been anywhere, but transmission probably got going in Wuhan (but not at the seafood market - that's a SSE)
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"Anywhere [in China]"