A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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I think it's safe to say that we're definitely missing some early emergence stuff here
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... which is very interesting and worth a closer look. Would explain why we can't really root properly as well (Ihaven't checked recently, but back in the spring, BEAST insisted on a midpoint root when you took away the dates).
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Will do some experiments on BEAST dating with enforced WA1 outgrouping
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Okay, cool - I'll have a chat with Karthik too - we haven't been able to get good estimates of the root TMRCA recently, but that may very well be on us.
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2020-12-06 11:18
Kristian G. Andersen
I'm heading out for an hour, but once I'm back lemme just clean up these alignments a little and share - just so wehave them archived here. :beer:
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> On January 21, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed the first U.S. case in a 35-year-old man living in Snohomish County. He had returned from Wuhan, China after visiting his family there, tothe U.S., landing at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on January 15, without any symptoms.
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And of course at that time Imperial College estimated Wuhan had 190-4000 cases by 12th Jan based on 3 exported cases.
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@Kristian Andersen They also used my quote out of context...I was just referring to some of those shonky studies, particularly the Indian-origin one.
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Yeah, clearly a lot more cases going around at that time than was appreciated - and obviously not (directly) linked tothe seafood market. We don't really see any evidence of other "WA1" lineages in Wuhan, do we? All those early ones were "Hu-1"?