Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.301 [SLACK_000515] · slack_pm:msg:03147

Date: 2020-12-06 12:07
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Natural origin / zoonotic spillover

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

The emergence itself could have been anywhere, but transmission probably got going in Wuhan (but not at the seafood market - that's a SSE)

Extracted statements

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
The emergence itself could have been anywhere, but transmission probably got going in Wuhan (but not at the seafood market - that's a SSE)	quoted / not their view	hypothetical conditional framing	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

The emergence itself could have been anywhere, but transmission probably got going in Wuhan (but not at the seafood market - that's a SSE)

quoted / not their view

hypothetical conditional framing

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-12-06 11:41 Andrew Rambaut open

And of course at that time Imperial College estimated Wuhan had 190-4000 cases by 12th Jan based on 3 exported cases.
2020-12-06 12:00 Edward C. Holmes open

@Kristian Andersen They also used my quote out of context...I was just referring to some of those shonky studies, particularly the Indian-origin one.
2020-12-06 12:02 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, clearly a lot more cases going around at that time than was appreciated - and obviously not (directly) linked tothe seafood market. We don't really see any evidence of other "WA1" lineages in Wuhan, do we? All those early ones were "Hu-1"?
2020-12-06 12:06 Kristian G. Andersen open

Probable scenario - ongoing undetected transmission in Wuhan building up, then a big super spreading event at the seafood market where it gets detected. Cases following are then connected to that event and most genomes are sequenced from the super spreading event, but not the emergence. Makes sense I think
2020-12-06 12:07 Kristian G. Andersen

The emergence itself could have been anywhere, but transmission probably got going in Wuhan (but not at the seafood market - that's a SSE)
2020-12-06 12:07 Kristian G. Andersen open

"Anywhere [in China]"
2020-12-06 12:08 Edward C. Holmes open

Total sense and I fully agree. I suspect the emergence event took place elsewhere and was imported into Wuhan.
2020-12-06 12:09 Edward C. Holmes open

Can you just summarise where the root should fall? I didn't follow all that chain.
2020-12-06 12:11 Kristian G. Andersen open

WA1

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