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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.260 [SLACK_000474] · slack_pm:msg:02721

Page text: p.260 · original PDF

Date
2020-11-17 09:14
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Kristian G. Andersen
Topics
Intelligence community assessments

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Yeah, I'm not quite sure what Y453F is about - might just be marginally beneficial.

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Yeah, I'm not quite sure what Y453F is about - might just be marginally beneficial. needs context uncertain explicit hedge asserts

In context

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  1. 2020-11-17 09:08 Andrew Rambaut open
    Yes. I have been saying that for years. Clear in avian flu too (the same mutations come up). Adaptations to the within-host environment are very rapid. Adaptations to transmission will be much slower. Thus viruses that jump and spread are likely already able to spread but may need some tweaking for within-host growth.
  2. 2020-11-17 09:09 Andrew Rambaut open
    The other thing that virologists struggle with is that better receptor binding does not equal fitter viruses.
  3. 2020-11-17 09:13 Andrew Rambaut open
    But even with the mink, there are lots of lineages in Marion's trees that don't have Y453F.
  4. 2020-11-17 09:13 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Yup, I have been hearing you saying this for years - for Ebola too. For SARS we actually got to see some of those mutations because we captured the intermediate host - would be very interesting to see for SARS2 as well, but the mink data is definitely interesting in this regard.
  5. 2020-11-17 09:14 Kristian G. Andersen
    Yeah, I'm not quite sure what Y453F is about - might just be marginally beneficial.
  6. 2020-11-17 09:15 Andrew Rambaut open
    It appears sufficient times in mink to mean it must be selected for but possibly quite weakly. And possibly as a resultof the high density.
  7. 2020-11-17 09:16 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Yup - plausibly this one becomes fixed when big populations get hit. A lot of diversity in the size of the various farms- especially in Denmark (not sure about NL - but I think they have more 'mega' farms).
  8. 2020-11-17 09:17 Andrew Rambaut open
    Here is a report I wrote for the WHO. To me the most interesting thing is the spike deletion at 69/70 that appears after Y453F and also appears after N469K in humans [shared file(s): Mink-associated_mutations_in_humans.pdf]
  9. 2020-11-17 09:18 Andrew Rambaut open
    Note also the Utah human - also mink related, also 453F (slightly confidentially).

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