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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.798 [SLACK_001012] · slack_pm:msg:08293

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Became HUGELY prevalent during the surge, but it was surge-driven, not mutation-driven (most likely)

In context

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2021-05-13 14:12 Andrew Rambaut open

B.1.617.2 (and .1) are very diverse suggesting quite an old origin (perhaps July last year).
2021-05-13 14:12 Andrew Rambaut open

But imports into UK basically started in March and Indian samples only appeared in Feb.
2021-05-13 14:12 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yup, saw that - similar to CA variant which may well be a dud.
2021-05-13 14:13 Andrew Rambaut open

But the full diversity is being imported into UK.
2021-05-13 14:13 Kristian G. Andersen

Became HUGELY prevalent during the surge, but it was surge-driven, not mutation-driven (most likely)
2021-05-13 14:13 Andrew Rambaut open

That doesn't feel like the virus being more transmissible - that is like lots of viruses entering some very high transmission populations.
2021-05-13 14:13 Kristian G. Andersen open

Hmmm
2021-05-13 14:14 Andrew Rambaut open

But it has P681R so is very plausibly more transmissible
2021-05-13 14:14 Kristian G. Andersen open

Not necessarily though - if e.g., P681R explains the increased transmissibility, then you'd see the full diversity