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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.768 [SLACK_000982] · slack_pm:msg:08040

Date: 2021-05-10 09:12
Type: chat message · slack
mentioned: Andrew Rambaut
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen

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Love it @Andrew Rambaut - and yes, this is what we need. For the ones above e >>> N and p(i) is also very low - probably ~1%. p(l) can be calibrated based on previous lab escapes and is also low - much less than 1%, but let's keep it at that. p(h) we can calibrate based on sero surveys, using a one year seroreversion - so 2% ofpopulation in certain areas.

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-05-10 08:44 Robert F. Garry open

? [shared file(s): image.png]
2021-05-10 08:54 Andrew Rambaut open

t proportion of bat viruses that are carnivore/human transmissible e number of exposures between bats and carnivores (over all locations, and over decades) p(h) probability of human infection per carnivore outbreak p(p) probability of pandemic arising per human infection p_zoonotic = t x e x p(h) x p(p) t is very small but e is very large For the lab scenario N = number of samples collected by the lab p(i) = probability a sample remains infectious p(l) = probability of a lab infection s = number of scientists handling material p_lab = t x N x p(i) x (1 - [1 - p(l)] ^ s) x p(p) In this one, t is very small, all of the p() are < 1 and N is not that big
2021-05-10 09:05 Robert F. Garry open

Brilliant! Math>>>Figure
2021-05-10 09:10 Andrew Rambaut open

I forgot to add in p(f) = probability that WIV is fibbing
2021-05-10 09:12 Kristian G. Andersen

Love it @Andrew Rambaut - and yes, this is what we need. For the ones above e >>> N and p(i) is also very low - probably ~1%. p(l) can be calibrated based on previous lab escapes and is also low - much less than 1%, but let's keep it at that. p(h) we can calibrate based on sero surveys, using a one year seroreversion - so 2% ofpopulation in certain areas.
2021-05-10 09:12 Kristian G. Andersen open

According to The Seeker, nobody in their right mind would consider p(f) > 0.... :wink:
2021-05-10 09:13 Kristian G. Andersen open

Worth plotting some of this out?
2021-05-10 09:13 Andrew Rambaut open

p(h) may be close to 1 - if there is an outbreak in a farmed carnivore population.
2021-05-10 09:15 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, p(h) definitely high - p(p I h) specifically for SARS-CoV-2 also high because of the features of the virus.

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