Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.462 [SLACK_000676] · slack_pm:msg:04796

Date: 2021-01-29 12:46
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen

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I'm pretty certain B117 will win out first, but as immunity builds up, probably some of these other lineages - OR B117will simply pick up those mutations and continue to dominate. Will be very interesting to watch (and, of course,linages X, Y, Z coming down the pipe....)

In context

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2021-01-29 12:43 Edward C. Holmes open

It was actually really interesting watching the Novavax chat yesterday: basically a 50/50 split on those who thought the results were good/bad.
2021-01-29 12:43 Robert F. Garry open

So I agree that B117 will come to dominate quickly. BUT what if B.1.351 comes into play? Will both circulate, will one replace the other? I'm kinda "rooting" for B117.
2021-01-29 12:45 Edward C. Holmes open

Yes, a replicatory advantage of B.1.1.7 over B.1.351 would be bloody useful!
2021-01-29 12:46 Kristian G. Andersen open

The Novavax is a fucking wakeup call like no other - the lack of urgency is disturbing. I don't think most people understand exactly how problematic that is - including vaccine makers and immunologists. "We want perfect data first!". Nope. Fucking move!
2021-01-29 12:46 Kristian G. Andersen

I'm pretty certain B117 will win out first, but as immunity builds up, probably some of these other lineages - OR B117will simply pick up those mutations and continue to dominate. Will be very interesting to watch (and, of course,linages X, Y, Z coming down the pipe....)
2021-01-29 12:48 Edward C. Holmes open

Definitely more lineages coming to a place near you soon. It was striking that people just seemed to want to hear the'89%' good news from the Novavax UK trial and not think about the SA data.
2021-01-29 12:49 Robert F. Garry open

Yes indeed Eddie - it's distressing. J and J efficacy starting off lower than Novavax.
2021-01-29 12:52 Kristian G. Andersen open

I think people just can't handle bad news by now, so they simply chose to ignore it - delusional, but understandable.I have a PhD in bad news, so I'm all good.

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