Slack / Private Message Drop — page 462

So I agree that B117 will come to dominate quickly. BUT what if B.1.351 comes into play? Will both circulate, will one replace the other? I'm kinda "rooting" for B117. [2021-01-29 12:45:06] [Eddie Holmes] Yes, a replicatory advantage of B.1.1.7 over B.1.351 would be bloody useful! [2021-01-29 12:46:02] [Kristian Andersen] The Novavax is a fucking wakeup call like no other - the lack of urgency is disturbing. I don't think most people understand exactly how problematic that is - including vaccine makers and immunologists. "We want perfect data first!". Nope. Fucking move! [2021-01-29 12:46:59] [Kristian Andersen] I'm pretty certain B117 will win out first, but as immunity builds up, probably some of these other lineages - OR B117 will simply pick up those mutations and continue to dominate. Will be very interesting to watch (and, of course, linages X, Y, Z coming down the pipe....) [2021-01-29 12:48:48] [Eddie Holmes] Definitely more lineages coming to a place near you soon. It was striking that people just seemed to want to hear the '89%' good news from the Novavax UK trial and not think about the SA data. [2021-01-29 12:49:54] [Robert Garry] Yes indeed Eddie - it's distressing. J and J efficacy starting off lower than Novavax. [2021-01-29 12:52:07] [Kristian Andersen] I think people just can't handle bad news by now, so they simply chose to ignore it - delusional, but understandable. I have a PhD in bad news, so I'm all good. [2021-01-29 15:39:56] [Robert Garry] J&J : "In the U.S., the vaccine had an efficacy rate of 72 percent in clinical trials. But in South Africa, a country gripped by a new and more contagious variant, the efficacy rate dropped to just 57 percent. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert, warned that Johnson & Johnson's trial results were a "wake up call" and warned manufacturers to be ready to reformulate the vaccines if needed. "If ever there was reason to vaccinate as many people as expeditiously as we possibly can with the vaccine that we have right now, now is the time," Dr. Fauci said in an interview. Scientists still consider the Johnson & Johnson vaccine to be a success: It was 85 percent effective in preventing severe disease. In all three regions where the trial was run -- the United States, Latin America and South Africa -- after 28 days, none of the vaccinated participants who developed Covid-19 had to be hospitalized. It is also easier to transport and administer than its rivals. " [2021-01-29 15:51:20] [Eddie Holmes] Really interesting. [2021-01-29 16:09:05] [Robert Garry] [thread - ID: 2021-01-27 02:20:46] @Eddie Holmes Bingo: [shared file(s): image.png] [2021-01-29 16:16:19] [Eddie Holmes]