Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.400 [SLACK_000614] · slack_pm:msg:04134

Date: 2021-01-14 16:56
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Robert F. Garry
Topics: Vaccines

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YeaH do think there will be failures for the vaccines that don't use a stabilized spike. Erica Saphire and others have been preaching this, some folks don't listen. Same with Lassa vaccine, but that's an entirely different story. BTW - Iwas on call yesterday with Erica/NIH so I missed several Zooms.

Extracted statements

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
YeaH do think there will be failures for the vaccines that don't use a stabilized spike.	own voice, substantive	speaker_own	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

YeaH do think there will be failures for the vaccines that don't use a stabilized spike.

own voice, substantive

speaker_own

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-01-14 16:26 Andrew Rambaut open

I agree. If these constellations have no effect on vaccine elicited immunity then boy will we have dodged a bullet.
2021-01-14 16:27 Kristian G. Andersen open

I'm almost certain they'll have _some_ effect on efficacy, but just not sure how much. Let's hope very little (say, 95%> 92%...)
2021-01-14 16:27 Kristian G. Andersen open

Lord knows what the effectiveness is going to be anyway. We'll see...
2021-01-14 16:31 Kristian G. Andersen open

Tangential to this, but important to fully understand just how tolerant SARS-CoV-2 is to mutations in immunologicallykey sites - HCoV-NL63 uses ACE2 as a receptor too and is very diverged from SC2. @Robert Garry - I don't know ifyou have looked more closely at that virus going through your alignments / structures?
2021-01-14 16:56 Robert F. Garry

YeaH do think there will be failures for the vaccines that don't use a stabilized spike. Erica Saphire and others have been preaching this, some folks don't listen. Same with Lassa vaccine, but that's an entirely different story. BTW - Iwas on call yesterday with Erica/NIH so I missed several Zooms.
2021-01-14 17:02 Kristian G. Andersen open

Why they did not stabilize that spike I don't know - so simple, people! If we follow this crackpot theory a little bit, knowing that animals that received the OxAZN vaccine were not protected against infection (at all - vaccinated animals had as much virus as unvaccinated animals in the upper airways after challenge). Could the non-stabilized spike lead to a very narrow immune response with very few epitopes exposed, some of which might be suboptimal?If yes, then presumably the virus might be able to escape immunity quite easily by changing a limited set of amino acids - and, presumably, the same/similar set of AAs.We wouldn't see the same happen in natural infections - more complex to escape. We also wouldn't see the same from other vaccines - because, again, more complex.I don't know if this holds up... Seems like a reach to me - albeit, maybe not impossible?

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