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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.385 [SLACK_000599] · slack_pm:msg:04008

Date: 2021-01-11 16:01
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Edward C. Holmes

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I don't think we have any info from previous immunocompromised cases (noros, flu) for such large-scale convergent evolution. Indeed, while I can see immunocompromised cases leading to lots of mutations, lots of the SAME mutations appearing multiple times does smell of very strong and directed selection.

In context

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2021-01-11 15:52 Robert F. Garry open

I think Doug did it...or at least maybe started the process -that is of course after the FCS inserted itself.
2021-01-11 15:52 Kristian G. Andersen open

Let's call that initial event Furio
2021-01-11 15:53 Kristian G. Andersen open

Furio > Hugo > Doug > Nelly > Eeek, Pooh. I see a pattern emerging.
2021-01-11 15:59 Robert F. Garry open

Yeah - it's all going to shit...
2021-01-11 16:01 Edward C. Holmes

I don't think we have any info from previous immunocompromised cases (noros, flu) for such large-scale convergent evolution. Indeed, while I can see immunocompromised cases leading to lots of mutations, lots of the SAME mutations appearing multiple times does smell of very strong and directed selection.
2021-01-11 16:09 Andrew Rambaut open

Just don't know - so much other stuff presumably hitchiking - I just don't think that likely happens via a progressionof individual mutations with bottlenecking transmission.
2021-01-11 16:11 Andrew Rambaut open

We are seeing all these mutations cropping up individually many times. But when they appear in combination now we also get 15 other mutations along side
2021-01-11 16:14 Edward C. Holmes open

I assume there's no recombination involved?
2021-01-11 16:17 Edward C. Holmes open

Also, "immunocompromised" covers a huge range of contexts...

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