Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.382 [SLACK_000596] · slack_pm:msg:03971

Date: 2021-01-11 15:12
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Vaccines

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Why're we seeing it now and not earlier? More widespread transmission, vaccines being deployed in some places, more standing immunity. But I do feel something's up here - doesn't seem normal to find so many clearly unrelated lineages ending up with a subset of the same mutations. That's just weird.

In context

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2021-01-11 15:09 Edward C. Holmes open

I'm really not sure I believe the chronic theory any more...once may be, but three times? Chronic infections are a tiny fraction of the overall population.
2021-01-11 15:10 Kristian G. Andersen open

Epizootic? Chronic infections? Immune escape? I think all in play.
2021-01-11 15:11 Kristian G. Andersen open

> It seems like all of these lineages are converging to the same set of mutations And just to this part - it's strongly suggestive of some very pervasive selections pressure that's in common in all these places. Or, alternatively (but I think less likely) something like this: https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(17)30292-1?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Fl[...]vier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS0092867417302921%3Fshowall%3Dtrue
2021-01-11 15:12 Andrew Rambaut open

Except that these 3 cases have a shit load of other stuff. Masses of spike mutations (and no synonymous in spike). Orf8 mutations and that nsp6 deletion
2021-01-11 15:12 Kristian G. Andersen

Why're we seeing it now and not earlier? More widespread transmission, vaccines being deployed in some places, more standing immunity. But I do feel something's up here - doesn't seem normal to find so many clearly unrelated lineages ending up with a subset of the same mutations. That's just weird.
2021-01-11 15:13 Andrew Rambaut open

3 very strange events with similar sets of mutations come up.
2021-01-11 15:13 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah.
2021-01-11 15:13 Kristian G. Andersen open

And in different parts of the world - with different climates, so not e.g., a "cold" adaptation.
2021-01-11 15:14 Andrew Rambaut open

Yup. Manaus is not chilly this time of year!

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