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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.378 [SLACK_000592] · slack_pm:msg:03930

Date: 2021-01-10 16:17
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen

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(coupled with too much wishful thinking - we so desperately yearn for positive news that we forget that things don't just automatically get better).

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-01-10 16:01 Kristian G. Andersen open

I'm hopeful that the mRNA vaccines with two doses will provide (near) sterilizing immunity. The issue with one doseis that you still have immunity, but you can't stop infection so the virus gets a chance to evolve in that milieu and the viruses that can escape will propagate. Sure, having full immunity will create a much stronger selection pressure (ifyou can't infect, you can't live), but if the virus can escape full immunity, then we have a much bigger problem on our hands.
2021-01-10 16:10 Andrew Rambaut open

So that is what the Manaus experiment will be about. Did 501Y, 484K and 417T appear in combination because it isreinfecting people.
2021-01-10 16:10 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah - Manaus (and Israel) will be really really important.
2021-01-10 16:15 Kristian G. Andersen open

If we start seeing reinfections (or vaccine failures) in Manaus / Israel driven by escape, then we might have torethink our entire vaccination strategy. Stockpiling enough supply to vaccinate most of the population while (massively) driving down infections via NPIs - then go out and vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly aspossible.I don't think humans have the ability to do that. In fact, I'm getting increasingly pessimistic that we have the ability toeven control the first few years of the "Reign of COVID-19". I'm seeing too many indicators currently that are makingme very uncomfortable.
2021-01-10 16:17 Kristian G. Andersen

(coupled with too much wishful thinking - we so desperately yearn for positive news that we forget that things don't just automatically get better).
2021-01-10 16:58 Robert F. Garry open

@Kristian Andersen I am now starting to think that the delayed dosing is vastly inferior to going with a half or one third dose followed by a second half or third dose.

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