Slack / Private Message Drop — page 378

Yeah - Manaus (and Israel) will be really really important. [2021-01-10 16:15:57] [Kristian Andersen] If we start seeing reinfections (or vaccine failures) in Manaus / Israel driven by escape, then we might have to rethink our entire vaccination strategy. Stockpiling enough supply to vaccinate most of the population while (massively) driving down infections via NPIs - then go out and vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible. I don't think humans have the ability to do that. In fact, I'm getting increasingly pessimistic that we have the ability to even control the first few years of the "Reign of COVID-19". I'm seeing too many indicators currently that are making me very uncomfortable. [2021-01-10 16:17:45] [Kristian Andersen] (coupled with too much wishful thinking - we so desperately yearn for positive news that we forget that things don't just automatically get better). [2021-01-10 16:58:27] [Robert Garry] [thread - ID: 2021-01-10 15:34:13] @Kristian Andersen I am now starting to think that the delayed dosing is vastly inferior to going with a half or one third dose followed by a second half or third dose. [2021-01-10 18:03:22] [Kristian Andersen] [thread - ID: 2021-01-10 15:34:13] @Kristian Andersen Absolutely. (But I'm very aware that this is an extremely complex question - a lot of people have good reason to disagree - but from my perspective, agreed!) [2021-01-10 18:21:06] [Robert Garry] [thread - ID: 2021-01-10 15:34:13] @Kristian Andersen You could also consider a schedule where people over 70 got the full doses and ppl under 70 get half or third doses. Similar to some flu vaccines - older ppl get higher doses. [2021-01-11 12:33:16] [Kristian Andersen] Heh - was just talking to Joel and he pointed me to this clip. Listen to the first 45 seconds - you might remember the scene... I admit I always hated this particular scene and thought it was stupid, but now I have to heat my hat and give Butt Lesion some credit... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVri50TXUqU [2021-01-11 13:05:52] [Andrew Rambaut] Remember that cluster possibly from Uganda with 681R and 613H? Now spreading in UK and has some with 484K. What is happening? [2021-01-11 13:06:36] [Kristian Andersen] You tell me - you're the expert [2021-01-11 13:08:43] [Kristian Andersen] And I'd add - probably reinfections, possibly asymptomatic driving E484K.