Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.378 [SLACK_000592] · slack_pm:msg:03929

Date: 2021-01-10 16:15
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Vaccines

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

If we start seeing reinfections (or vaccine failures) in Manaus / Israel driven by escape, then we might have torethink our entire vaccination strategy. Stockpiling enough supply to vaccinate most of the population while (massively) driving down infections via NPIs - then go out and vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly aspossible.I don't think humans have the ability to do that. In fact, I'm getting increasingly pessimistic that we have the ability toeven control the first few years of the "Reign of COVID-19". I'm seeing too many indicators currently that are makingme very uncomfortable.

Extracted statements

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
If we start seeing reinfections (or vaccine failures) in Manaus / Israel driven by escape, then we might have torethink our entire vaccination strategy.	quoted / not their view	hypothetical conditional framing	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

If we start seeing reinfections (or vaccine failures) in Manaus / Israel driven by escape, then we might have torethink our entire vaccination strategy.

quoted / not their view

hypothetical conditional framing

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-01-10 15:48 Andrew Rambaut open

But I feel that we need some serious modelling done here.
2021-01-10 16:01 Kristian G. Andersen open

I'm hopeful that the mRNA vaccines with two doses will provide (near) sterilizing immunity. The issue with one doseis that you still have immunity, but you can't stop infection so the virus gets a chance to evolve in that milieu and the viruses that can escape will propagate. Sure, having full immunity will create a much stronger selection pressure (ifyou can't infect, you can't live), but if the virus can escape full immunity, then we have a much bigger problem on our hands.
2021-01-10 16:10 Andrew Rambaut open

So that is what the Manaus experiment will be about. Did 501Y, 484K and 417T appear in combination because it isreinfecting people.
2021-01-10 16:10 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah - Manaus (and Israel) will be really really important.
2021-01-10 16:15 Kristian G. Andersen

If we start seeing reinfections (or vaccine failures) in Manaus / Israel driven by escape, then we might have torethink our entire vaccination strategy. Stockpiling enough supply to vaccinate most of the population while (massively) driving down infections via NPIs - then go out and vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly aspossible.I don't think humans have the ability to do that. In fact, I'm getting increasingly pessimistic that we have the ability toeven control the first few years of the "Reign of COVID-19". I'm seeing too many indicators currently that are makingme very uncomfortable.
2021-01-10 16:17 Kristian G. Andersen open

(coupled with too much wishful thinking - we so desperately yearn for positive news that we forget that things don't just automatically get better).
2021-01-10 16:58 Robert F. Garry open

@Kristian Andersen I am now starting to think that the delayed dosing is vastly inferior to going with a half or one third dose followed by a second half or third dose.

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