A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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@Robert Garry He sent me that to comment on.
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@Andrew Rambaut Tasted fine in the stir fry.
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"That is the main point - close to herd immunity is the worst for selecting for escape. Why vaccination needs to befast and comprehensive. Its also why I am going more in favour of delaying second dose if you can get universal coverage quickly but the worse would be slow and delayed." I can't agree because we don't know how good protection is going to be for 12 weeks. May be fine, but may also be that one dose maximises selection pressures. BUT it's also clear that it's Sophie's Choice in UK...in fact, they have no choice but to delay the 2nd dose. Very hardto balance theoretical evolution against hard deaths. It's also absolutely clear that plus of supply issues no country isgoing to be able to employ the perfect vaccination schedule. The virus is going to evolve and we'll just have to live with it.
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I agree we don't know but if we drive the emergence of escapes then all of the people we have vaccinated will thenbe vulnerable gain whether they have the 2nd dose or not
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2021-01-10 12:48
Andrew Rambaut
I guess the point is we don't know much and I wouldn't want to have to make the call on this.
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If I had to chose between delaying doses and splitting doses I'd pick splitting doses and keeping to the 2 dose regiment.
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Agree! Sophie's Choice as I say.
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But the other issue is that this has got to be a global effort.
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Exactly! It's not just about the UK. Personally, I don't think what the UK does is going to have a huge impact on topof the global evolutionary soup. So, while I don't like the delayed 2nd dose, I'm ok with it because I think their hands are tied.