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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.376 [SLACK_000590] · slack_pm:msg:03913

Page text: p.376 · original PDF

Date
2021-01-10 12:47
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker
Andrew Rambaut

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

I agree we don't know but if we drive the emergence of escapes then all of the people we have vaccinated will thenbe vulnerable gain whether they have the 2nd dose or not

In context

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  1. 2021-01-10 12:12 Robert F. Garry open
    Yes - risky!
  2. 2021-01-10 12:28 Edward C. Holmes open
    @Robert Garry He sent me that to comment on.
  3. 2021-01-10 12:30 Edward C. Holmes open
    @Andrew Rambaut Tasted fine in the stir fry.
  4. 2021-01-10 12:44 Edward C. Holmes open
    "That is the main point - close to herd immunity is the worst for selecting for escape. Why vaccination needs to befast and comprehensive. Its also why I am going more in favour of delaying second dose if you can get universal coverage quickly but the worse would be slow and delayed." I can't agree because we don't know how good protection is going to be for 12 weeks. May be fine, but may also be that one dose maximises selection pressures. BUT it's also clear that it's Sophie's Choice in UK...in fact, they have no choice but to delay the 2nd dose. Very hardto balance theoretical evolution against hard deaths. It's also absolutely clear that plus of supply issues no country isgoing to be able to employ the perfect vaccination schedule. The virus is going to evolve and we'll just have to live with it.
  5. 2021-01-10 12:47 Andrew Rambaut
    I agree we don't know but if we drive the emergence of escapes then all of the people we have vaccinated will thenbe vulnerable gain whether they have the 2nd dose or not
  6. 2021-01-10 12:48 Andrew Rambaut open
    I guess the point is we don't know much and I wouldn't want to have to make the call on this.
  7. 2021-01-10 12:48 Robert F. Garry open
    If I had to chose between delaying doses and splitting doses I'd pick splitting doses and keeping to the 2 dose regiment.
  8. 2021-01-10 12:48 Edward C. Holmes open
    Agree! Sophie's Choice as I say.
  9. 2021-01-10 12:48 Andrew Rambaut open
    But the other issue is that this has got to be a global effort.

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