Slack / Private Message Drop — page 376

[2021-01-10 12:28:15] [Eddie Holmes] [thread - ID: 2021-01-10 06:31:19] @Robert Garry He sent me that to comment on. [2021-01-10 12:30:01] [Eddie Holmes] [thread - ID: 2021-01-10 08:21:11] @Andrew Rambaut Tasted fine in the stir fry. [2021-01-10 12:44:47] [Eddie Holmes] "That is the main point - close to herd immunity is the worst for selecting for escape. Why vaccination needs to be fast and comprehensive. Its also why I am going more in favour of delaying second dose if you can get universal coverage quickly but the worse would be slow and delayed." I can't agree because we don't know how good protection is going to be for 12 weeks. May be fine, but may also be that one dose maximises selection pressures. BUT it's also clear that it's Sophie's Choice in UK...in fact, they have no choice but to delay the 2nd dose. Very hard to balance theoretical evolution against hard deaths. It's also absolutely clear that plus of supply issues no country is going to be able to employ the perfect vaccination schedule. The virus is going to evolve and we'll just have to live with it. [2021-01-10 12:47:40] [Andrew Rambaut] I agree we don't know but if we drive the emergence of escapes then all of the people we have vaccinated will then be vulnerable gain whether they have the 2nd dose or not [2021-01-10 12:48:08] [Andrew Rambaut] I guess the point is we don't know much and I wouldn't want to have to make the call on this. [2021-01-10 12:48:34] [Robert Garry] If I had to chose between delaying doses and splitting doses I'd pick splitting doses and keeping to the 2 dose regiment. [2021-01-10 12:48:35] [Eddie Holmes] Agree! Sophie's Choice as I say. [2021-01-10 12:48:55] [Andrew Rambaut] But the other issue is that this has got to be a global effort. [2021-01-10 12:50:38] [Eddie Holmes] Exactly! It's not just about the UK. Personally, I don't think what the UK does is going to have a huge impact on top of the global evolutionary soup. So, while I don't like the delayed 2nd dose, I'm ok with it because I think their hands are tied. [2021-01-10 12:53:53] [Andrew Rambaut] It is a gamble. But may save lives in the short term. Or may be a disaster. [2021-01-10 12:58:06] [Robert Garry]