Private channel session 787
18 messages over 1h 40m, 2021-01-10 – 2021-01-10.
A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.
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Yes. Confidentially this has come from Manaus - i.e., super high seroprevalence.
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Oh my - that's concerning if this is what emerges out of close to "herd immunity."
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That is the main point - close to herd immunity is the worst for selecting for escape. Why vaccination needs to befast and comprehensive. Its also why I am going more in favour of delaying second dose if you can get universal coverage quickly but the worse would be slow and delayed.
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How about splitting up the doses? Like they have done for smallpox...
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"Slow and delayed" is definitely the Trump approach.
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This might be worth considering and based on the above there is not a minor chance of this making it worse. Nevertheless - Looking back at least at the Pfizer vaccine they got very similar immunological/neut results with 10,20 and 30 ug doses - yet they went with the 30 ug dose in the phase 2/3. Don't know why. The pfizer vaccine isdiluted to about 2 ml per vial. 0.3ml dose. 5-6 doses per vial. I bet based on the Phase I you could double thevolume of the diluent and inject 0.2 mls instead of 0.3 mls and get similar immunity. That's 15-18 doses per vialinstead of 5-6.
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Yes - risky!
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@Robert Garry He sent me that to comment on.
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@Andrew Rambaut Tasted fine in the stir fry.
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"That is the main point - close to herd immunity is the worst for selecting for escape. Why vaccination needs to befast and comprehensive. Its also why I am going more in favour of delaying second dose if you can get universal coverage quickly but the worse would be slow and delayed." I can't agree because we don't know how good protection is going to be for 12 weeks. May be fine, but may also be that one dose maximises selection pressures. BUT it's also clear that it's Sophie's Choice in UK...in fact, they have no choice but to delay the 2nd dose. Very hardto balance theoretical evolution against hard deaths. It's also absolutely clear that plus of supply issues no country isgoing to be able to employ the perfect vaccination schedule. The virus is going to evolve and we'll just have to live with it.
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I agree we don't know but if we drive the emergence of escapes then all of the people we have vaccinated will thenbe vulnerable gain whether they have the 2nd dose or not
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I guess the point is we don't know much and I wouldn't want to have to make the call on this.
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If I had to chose between delaying doses and splitting doses I'd pick splitting doses and keeping to the 2 dose regiment.
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Agree! Sophie's Choice as I say.
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But the other issue is that this has got to be a global effort.
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Exactly! It's not just about the UK. Personally, I don't think what the UK does is going to have a huge impact on topof the global evolutionary soup. So, while I don't like the delayed 2nd dose, I'm ok with it because I think their hands are tied.
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It is a gamble. But may save lives in the short term. Or may be a disaster.
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Need to get to work on the v2.0 vaccine as well... the good news is the main variants that pop are now evident.