A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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Perhaps which ever bat colony produced the 2018 outbreak had some latently infected bats but seems less likely.
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Probability of it happening in the middle of another outbreak in the same region? Weird
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Yeah, MBK67 is super weird, but I talked to Mike earlier in the week and it sounds like it's basal on the clade - I can't quite suss it out from the tree as it's displayed. If that is the case, then it might not actually be a survivor relapse, but rather a new spill-over from the very same reservoir. Very interesting indeed - let's touch base on it with Mike next week too.
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And yes, from a probability standpoint - two separate outbreaks starting essentially at the same time? Clearly not impossible, but definitely seems risk overall is just up for Ebola - people encroaching on animal habitat I guess.
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2020-08-15 16:07
Andrew Rambaut
I wouldn't trust the basal thing - it has lots of low coverage areas including over quite a few SNPS internal to the outbreak.
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Strong ascertainment bias - EVD will be noticed in that area.
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Ah, okay - I asked Mike if that sequence had any of the human diversity from the previous outbreak and he said no.But if it's a low coverage sample, who knows. Very very interesting (and so messed up...)
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I will take another look before our chat.
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Also, interestingly - more cases of vaccinees getting primary Ebola, only to relapse later on after having receivedmAbs... This definitely needs some further looking into.