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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.137 [SLACK_000351] · slack_pm:msg:01403

Date: 2020-08-15 16:06
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen

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And yes, from a probability standpoint - two separate outbreaks starting essentially at the same time? Clearly not impossible, but definitely seems risk overall is just up for Ebola - people encroaching on animal habitat I guess.

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2020-08-15 15:59 Andrew Rambaut open

Yeah. The MBK67 has areas of low coverage suggesting a difficult sample. But it has to be survivor relapse/latentinfection, surely?
2020-08-15 16:00 Andrew Rambaut open

Perhaps which ever bat colony produced the 2018 outbreak had some latently infected bats but seems less likely.
2020-08-15 16:01 Andrew Rambaut open

Probability of it happening in the middle of another outbreak in the same region? Weird
2020-08-15 16:05 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, MBK67 is super weird, but I talked to Mike earlier in the week and it sounds like it's basal on the clade - I can't quite suss it out from the tree as it's displayed. If that is the case, then it might not actually be a survivor relapse, but rather a new spill-over from the very same reservoir. Very interesting indeed - let's touch base on it with Mike next week too.
2020-08-15 16:06 Kristian G. Andersen

And yes, from a probability standpoint - two separate outbreaks starting essentially at the same time? Clearly not impossible, but definitely seems risk overall is just up for Ebola - people encroaching on animal habitat I guess.
2020-08-15 16:07 Andrew Rambaut open

I wouldn't trust the basal thing - it has lots of low coverage areas including over quite a few SNPS internal to the outbreak.
2020-08-15 16:08 Andrew Rambaut open

Strong ascertainment bias - EVD will be noticed in that area.
2020-08-15 16:08 Kristian G. Andersen open

Ah, okay - I asked Mike if that sequence had any of the human diversity from the previous outbreak and he said no.But if it's a low coverage sample, who knows. Very very interesting (and so messed up...)
2020-08-15 16:09 Andrew Rambaut open

I will take another look before our chat.

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