Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.47 [SLACK_000261] · slack_pm:msg:00461

Date: 2020-06-01 11:15
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Robert F. Garry
Topics: Masks, lockdowns and NPIs Intelligence community assessments

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Don't know if you'll agree but I answered something like this:That's a set of very alarming statements in the Reuter'sarticle. There is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is "losing it's potency" in Italy or anywhere else. This is not what happens over a short period of time in virus evolution. What has happened is that case numbers have dropped in Italy, no doubt because of "some of the most rigidlockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent.""The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutelyinfinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago." This is almost certainly due to the fact that in the early days of the outbreak in Italy a larger percentage of very sick individuals we tested by the qPCRS. As the mitigation kicked in a higher percentage of milder cases would betested.Virus load correlates with severity. Here's one example:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext"The mean viral load of severe cases was around 60 times higher than that of mild cases, suggesting that higher viral loads might be associated with severe clinical outcomes."Anecdotes are not science and shouldn't drive public health policy - particularly during a pandemic.

Links shared

journal https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext

Extracted statements

Rule-extracted, not adjudicated. The grade says what may be done with each one; read the document above before relying on any of them.

Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
What has happened is that case numbers have dropped in Italy, no doubt because of "some of the most rigidlockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent.""The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutelyinfinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago." This is almost certainly due to the fact that in the early days of the outbreak in Italy a larger percentage of very sick individuals we tested by the qPCRS.	quoted / not their view	quoted_external inside quotation marks	asserts
Here's one example:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext"The mean viral load of severe cases was around 60 times higher than that of mild cases, suggesting that higher viral loads might be associated with severe clinical outcomes."Anecdotes are not science and shouldn't drive public health policy - particularly during a pandemic.	quoted / not their view	quoted_external sentence carries quotation marks	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

What has happened is that case numbers have dropped in Italy, no doubt because of "some of the most rigidlockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent.""The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutelyinfinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago." This is almost certainly due to the fact that in the early days of the outbreak in Italy a larger percentage of very sick individuals we tested by the qPCRS.

quoted / not their view

quoted_external inside quotation marks

asserts

Here's one example:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext"The mean viral load of severe cases was around 60 times higher than that of mild cases, suggesting that higher viral loads might be associated with severe clinical outcomes."Anecdotes are not science and shouldn't drive public health policy - particularly during a pandemic.

quoted / not their view

quoted_external sentence carries quotation marks

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-06-01 10:01 Kristian G. Andersen open

Why does this kind of crap get published? https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.26067. Isn't this the journal with the snake flu paper too?
2020-06-01 10:47 Robert F. Garry open

*New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says*
2020-06-01 10:47 Robert F. Garry open

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ
2020-06-01 11:10 Kristian G. Andersen open

So many requests about this today - such a waste of time...
2020-06-01 11:15 Robert F. Garry

Don't know if you'll agree but I answered something like this:That's a set of very alarming statements in the Reuter'sarticle. There is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is "losing it's potency" in Italy or anywhere else. This is not what happens over a short period of time in virus evolution. What has happened is that case numbers have dropped in Italy, no doubt because of "some of the most rigidlockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent.""The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutelyinfinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago." This is almost certainly due to the fact that in the early days of the outbreak in Italy a larger percentage of very sick individuals we tested by the qPCRS. As the mitigation kicked in a higher percentage of milder cases would betested.Virus load correlates with severity. Here's one example:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext"The mean viral load of severe cases was around 60 times higher than that of mild cases, suggesting that higher viral loads might be associated with severe clinical outcomes."Anecdotes are not science and shouldn't drive public health policy - particularly during a pandemic.
2020-06-01 11:39 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, basically my thinking - although I have decided not to comment... :wink:
2020-06-01 12:07 Robert F. Garry open

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/ebola-congo-2nd-outbreak-ebola-reported-congo-who-says-n122122 6 Be prepared for ultimate SARS-Cov-2/Ebola virus/measles virus mash-up hysteria.

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