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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.47 [SLACK_000261] · slack_pm:msg:00459

Page text: p.47 · original PDF

Date
2020-06-01 10:47
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Kristian G. Andersen, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Robert F. Garry

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ

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  1. 2020-06-01 10:01 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Why does this kind of crap get published? https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.26067. Isn't this the journal with the snake flu paper too?
  2. 2020-06-01 10:47 Robert F. Garry open
    *New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says*
  3. 2020-06-01 10:47 Robert F. Garry
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ
  4. 2020-06-01 11:10 Kristian G. Andersen open
    So many requests about this today - such a waste of time...
  5. 2020-06-01 11:15 Robert F. Garry open
    Don't know if you'll agree but I answered something like this:That's a set of very alarming statements in the Reuter'sarticle. There is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is "losing it's potency" in Italy or anywhere else. This is not what happens over a short period of time in virus evolution. What has happened is that case numbers have dropped in Italy, no doubt because of "some of the most rigidlockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent.""The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutelyinfinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago." This is almost certainly due to the fact that in the early days of the outbreak in Italy a larger percentage of very sick individuals we tested by the qPCRS. As the mitigation kicked in a higher percentage of milder cases would betested.Virus load correlates with severity. Here's one example:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext"The mean viral load of severe cases was around 60 times higher than that of mild cases, suggesting that higher viral loads might be associated with severe clinical outcomes."Anecdotes are not science and shouldn't drive public health policy - particularly during a pandemic.
  6. 2020-06-01 11:39 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Yeah, basically my thinking - although I have decided not to comment... :wink:
  7. 2020-06-01 12:07 Robert F. Garry open
    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/ebola-congo-2nd-outbreak-ebola-reported-congo-who-says-n122122 6 Be prepared for ultimate SARS-Cov-2/Ebola virus/measles virus mash-up hysteria.

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