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Slack / Private Message Drop, pp.46-47 [SLACK_000260] · slack_pm:msg:00458

Page text: p.46, p.47 · original PDF

Date: 2020-06-01 10:47
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Robert F. Garry

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*New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says*

In context

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2020-06-01 10:01 Kristian G. Andersen open

Why does this kind of crap get published? https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jmv.26067. Isn't this the journal with the snake flu paper too?
2020-06-01 10:47 Robert F. Garry

*New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says*
2020-06-01 10:47 Robert F. Garry open

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ
2020-06-01 11:10 Kristian G. Andersen open

So many requests about this today - such a waste of time...
2020-06-01 11:15 Robert F. Garry open

Don't know if you'll agree but I answered something like this:That's a set of very alarming statements in the Reuter'sarticle. There is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is "losing it's potency" in Italy or anywhere else. This is not what happens over a short period of time in virus evolution. What has happened is that case numbers have dropped in Italy, no doubt because of "some of the most rigidlockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent.""The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutelyinfinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago." This is almost certainly due to the fact that in the early days of the outbreak in Italy a larger percentage of very sick individuals we tested by the qPCRS. As the mitigation kicked in a higher percentage of milder cases would betested.Virus load correlates with severity. Here's one example:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext"The mean viral load of severe cases was around 60 times higher than that of mild cases, suggesting that higher viral loads might be associated with severe clinical outcomes."Anecdotes are not science and shouldn't drive public health policy - particularly during a pandemic.
2020-06-01 11:39 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, basically my thinking - although I have decided not to comment... :wink:

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